UFC 264 | Poirier vs McGregor

[Kazda1]

Lol at half of the posts being about Hu vs Amedovski

I was gonna post this myself. I'm so curious to know why people care so much for two fighters we readily admit suck and haven't fought in years.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Been watching film of Moutinho and I don't think he is as bad as most of the folks breaking down this fight have been making him out to be.

Admittedly, I am skeptical about how much of a "knockout artist" Sean really is, but the kid he is facing does not appear to be some glass-jawed fighter who will be totally out of his element.

I expect him to be spamming calf kicks and maybe shoot a takedown. Sean is going to have to catch him coming in, and even then I am skeptical Suga has enough power to put this guy out cold. Rather, I see Moutinho losing by decision as the most likely outcome, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets Suga down and steals a round .

 

[Siver!]

Been watching film of Moutinho and I don't think he is as bad as most of the folks breaking down this fight have been making him out to be.

Admittedly, I am skeptical about how much of a "knockout artist" Sean really is, but the kid he is facing does not appear to be some glass-jawed fighter who will be totally out of his element.

I expect him to be spamming calf kicks and maybe shoot a takedown. Sean is going to have to catch him coming in, and even then I am skeptical Suga has enough power to put this guy out cold. Rather, I see Moutinho losing by decision as the most likely outcome, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets Suga down and steals a round .

I don't know about that, this fight has the look of the O'Malley-Quinonez fight to me.

Quinonez is similar in that he's a workaday striker with a reasonable chin and can mix it up, and usually has a height and length advantage, which he won't here; Quinonez was bamboozled by O'Malley's movements, and couldn't deal with that aforementioned height and reach advantage coupled with the in-and-out nature of O'Malley's striking. I've seen nothing from Moutinho to suggest he's better equipped.

Looks like an uninspiring piece of matchmaking, I don't see any interest coming from Moutinho, and O'Malley is a KO artist who doesn't rely on power; I believe he'll turn Moutinho's lights out in the first.

 

[HockeyBjj]

I rewatched the Wonderboy vs Luque fight, and I feel like the public consensus on Thompson being able to control the range so well on Burns may be off. Luque got into the pocket many times and was able to trade with hooks. And Burns throws a lot heavier hooker. Or could, once in the pocket, throw a hook into a level change from in tight instead of having to shoot from range

 

[DogsAndKisses]

I rewatched the Wonderboy vs Luque fight, and I feel like the public consensus on Thompson being able to control the range so well on Burns may be off. Luque got into the pocket many times and was able to trade with hooks. And Burns throws a lot heavier hooker. Or could, once in the pocket, throw a hook into a level change from in tight instead of having to shoot from range

But thats exactly part of why us WB backers are betting him at mid -1xx. Burns has to close that distance, he has to do it early, and he either has to land a KO punch or take down a guy with great tdd. Its very unlikely he can successfully do this enough for a decision win, the skill difference in striking is pretty substantial, even though Burns can replicate Luque like you said at the end of the day he still IS your typical flat footed striker who puts 100% into all of his shots that WB has seen 100000x times, etc.

So basically Burns sole path to victory is doing the one thing you're worried about and doing it in a way where it results in a KO early before WB takes over via superior skills and cardio. Pretty narrow path in relation to the price

 

[HockeyBjj]

But thats exactly part of why us WB backers are betting him at mid -1xx.

True. It ain't crazy odds and heavy juice to get Wonderboy

As I said that. +130 still isn't enough for me to put it on Burns. Just was enough for me to end up passing on betting Wonderboy

 

[Thesnake101]

Been watching film of Moutinho and I don't think he is as bad as most of the folks breaking down this fight have been making him out to be.

Admittedly, I am skeptical about how much of a "knockout artist" Sean really is, but the kid he is facing does not appear to be some glass-jawed fighter who will be totally out of his element.

I expect him to be spamming calf kicks and maybe shoot a takedown. Sean is going to have to catch him coming in, and even then I am skeptical Suga has enough power to put this guy out cold. Rather, I see Moutinho losing by decision as the most likely outcome, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets Suga down and steals a round .

Massive disagree in regards to Sean's lack of power. The three opponents that made it to the distance with him have a combined 27 losses, and of those losses only 1 came via TKO, it being a retirement.

Add to that the fact that Kris has only lost via finish so far, not to mention that he's coming in on short-notice, and it paints the clear picture of what this fight is. If you can get stopped by Cupcake Campbell you can get stopped by Suga' Sean.

 

[carolinagrapple]

I'm ready. What are the odds Trevin Giles faints backstage again?

Suga Sean looks like if that store Spencer's Gifts at the mall was a person....

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Alen has looked lousy in both his UFC outings, slow and immobile, looking for a flat-footed KO - which saw him get starched by John Phillips, about the last guy you want to get into a wild, swinging brawl with (when there are much easier ways to beat him). Before that, Jotko easily handled him largely relying on takedowns and grappling.

If you want to see Alen actively grappling, he initiated a round or so against Sammarco in Italy () - and wasn't great at it, losing position sloppily, although he did win that with elbows and punches (often to the back of the head).

Hu is a strange one; 6'3, he entered the UFC at Heavyweight and was pretty comfortably handled by Cyril Asker both on the feet and on the mat. He was pretty seriously undersized at 232 lbs - but the reason he got picked up was because he was a Chinese fighter willing to fight at Heavyweight in Shanghai on 5 days notice. There aren't that many heavyweights in China, let alone available on 5 days notice; that he was unbeaten was a bonus. He never was UFC level, and his striking defence has looked awful both against Asker, and when he dropped to 205 to fight Rashad Coulter, who went the distance but had a comfortable win.

Asker and Coulter have both since been released by the UFC, and Coulter was last seen losing to Ike Villanueva to get Villanueva back into the UFC.

Hu's striking itself has seen some variety, but nothing to trouble Asker or Coulter; Despite being 6'3 vs 5'10 Amedovski, and despite dropping down again to Middleweight, Hu has a reach DISadvantage - but I wouldn't be surprised if he used a kick-heavy arsenal against a guy who likes to swing haymakers. His a fleet-footed compared to Amedovski, so could try to fight from the outside and maintain some distance - but he really doesn't look good enough to do that, and has been tagged so many times in two fights that it's clear Alen's going to land on him. On the other hand, Hu wasn't getting KO'd at heavyweight or light heavyweight by two pretty big dudes, so even if Alen cracks him, Hu might hang in there. As for who has better cardio, pass - neither has looked to have particularly great conditioning when losing decisions. I'd assume Hu, but he was breathing heavily in R1 against Asker, so who knows.

For two inactive guys on losing streaks, this is a must-win for both - and honestly, neither deserves to be in the UFC at this point. Hu hasn't fought in nearly 3 years, Amedovski in nearly 2.

I'm fairly confident Amedovski will win this by Decision. Hu doesn't have the cage generalship to fight at distance from what we've seen, so unless his grappling has improved to at least average (which is good enough to beat Amedovski), then this will be a fun(ish) brawl with Alen alternately leading the dance and slowing the fight down in waves. Hu will get cut, but at least he got 3 fights as a reward for being the only man in China that could fill in against Asker. I doubt the matchmakers are even interested who wins at this point.

I cant disagree with you but still cant forgive Alan for being defeated by Jotko.. This was a fight that Alan was supposed to win.

Hu hasn't fought in nearly 3 years

Well i do hear Hu is at a better Gym and still young so we shall see.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I think a quick finish on the main event is being overpriced now.I think Connor overestimated his ability to knock Dustin out and underestimated Dustin's and he's gonna be more cautious.I expect either a finish in 4th or 5th or this one going the distance

I really do wonder if Conor at all has improved or learned how to stop takedowns? if not well Conor will be in for a long long night. I really like Dustin to win here.

Anyone going for the Dustin by Submission i dont hate it. Maybe by ITD/Dec if by Dustin just to be safe. And i hope some hedge out with Conor in betting in case he finds that path to Ko.

I hope no one is crazy enough to bet the main event by betting their whole house down.

 

[rev0lver]

I was gonna post this myself. I'm so curious to know why people care so much for two fighters we readily admit suck and haven't fought in years.

For me it's because Hu seems like one of the easiest fades in the roster and his opponent is just a small favorite. Lots of tossups on the card and Alen feels like easy money at a good price.

Well i do hear Hu is at a better Gym and still young so we shall see.

He's not though. He only spent time at Tiger Muay Thai to prep for the Coulter fight, and it didn't help him beat a bum. He's been at the UFC PI in Shanghai since. Not putting much stock in that.

 

[rev0lver]

I really do wonder if Conor at all has improved or learned how to stop takedowns? if not well Conor will be in for a long long night. I really like Dustin to win here.

I'm on Dustin but idk why people are this low on Conor's TDD. He did show some pretty solid defense against Khabib even if it was futile in the end. Probably better than a lot of Khabib's opponents. And I can't imagine he hasn't been working on it more since.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I'm on Dustin but idk why people are this low on Conor's TDD. He did show some pretty solid defense against Khabib even if it was futile in the end. Probably better than a lot of Khabib's opponents. And I can't imagine he hasn't been working on it more since.

Have you seen what Dana White said about Conor? in a interview Dana White the boss of the UFC said Conor has alot of money that he really doesnt have to fight anymore yet he wants to fight because his a fighter to the heart which again what Dana White said is qutie on the spot. If you love a sport you would fight or play it in till the end though.

I just see some red flags with what Dana White said. Again your right i saw and paid PVV that fight Conor did pretty well in the two rounds agaisnt Khabib he almost had him. If Conor wins as well i wont be shocked nor surprised i never doubted a fighter unless they are in a iffy fall of a track record its just like with other UFC fighters which Conor will show up?

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Uhhh if you expected late Conor money to come in before betting DP idk about that when drug use got Conor out here saying shit like this

 

[mkess101]

Uhhh if you expected late Conor money to come in before betting DP idk about that when drug use got Conor out here saying shit like this

Agree, that is just the stupidest thing I can think of. If you want to discount decisions...whatever. They count, it's a sport, but fine. You think there's nothing definitive about them. But subs? FFS, you don't think you tapping means you lost? So in the first Nate fight, for it to be a "real fight" should they have just let Nate hold onto the choke and cut off the blood supply until Conor was a vegetable or died due lack of oxygen to his brain?

Conor has lost his damn mind.

 

[Kazda1]

Uhhh if you expected late Conor money to come in before betting DP idk about that when drug use got Conor out here saying shit like this

I've never been so tired of hearing this man talk. My Conor hate is nearing levels of my New England Patriots/Tom Brady hate.

A knockout won't really be as satisfying unless Herb lets it go down to the Yamasaki levels. I want to see Conor snore Saturday.


On another note, I hope it comes through for y'all Dustin backers. The last time I remember seeing this many people on one side in the main event, I remember warning about Brian Ortega crushing people's dreams. It smells funny to me, but I do hope/pray/need Dustin to send Conor permanent irrelevancy

 

[Kazda1]

For me it's because Hu seems like one of the easiest fades in the roster and his opponent is just a small favorite. Lots of tossups on the card and Alen feels like easy money at a good price.



He's not though. He only spent time at Tiger Muay Thai to prep for the Coulter fight, and it didn't help him beat a bum. He's been at the UFC PI in Shanghai since. Not putting much stock in that.

But how can you say anybody is easy money when both fighters themselves have been nothing but easy money if you bet against them? I mean, is the argument who's the easiest money of the easy money? Lol.

I'm just kidding, but only partially.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Uhhh if you expected late Conor money to come in before betting DP idk about that when drug use got Conor out here saying shit like this

Porier by submission +600 looking even better. Connor will just give up his neck when rocked to avoid actually "losing"

 

[HockeyBjj]

Literally, everyone is talking about betting Dustin. How is Connor holding onto +110?

Casual McG bettors got burned last time. They're not gonna come out in droves against the same opponent.

This is actually having me worried as a Porier bettor, like it's all a trap. Like when Stipe stayed an underdog even though 70% of bets were on Stipe the dog as opposed to Ngannou the fav.

Also on line movement, Sean O'Malley went from -650 to -1000. Parlayed up to Nunes levels I guess. But then on that embedded episode the sacrificial lamb literally said he didn't know if he had a chance to win, and he only took this fight because it was the only way he'd ever get into the UFC lol.

 

[Bakayoko]

I really do wonder if Conor at all has improved or learned how to stop takedowns? if not well Conor will be in for a long long night. I really like Dustin to win here.

Anyone going for the Dustin by Submission i dont hate it. Maybe by ITD/Dec if by Dustin just to be safe. And i hope some hedge out with Conor in betting in case he finds that path to Ko.

I hope no one is crazy enough to bet the main event by betting their whole house down.

ML main bet ofcourse,the ITD and ML Poirer lines are to close from the begining for me to put something on ITD.DEC is 6,50 and has value and late round finishes are high odds so you can easily cover it.I have stupidly bet McGregor the second fight and have contemplated this 3rd fight for months.Ofcourse Connor has a chance and I'm not counting him out,maybe I described it wrong in my first post for the fight...But,technical details aside an putting it all together the main thing is Connor had three matches since 2016,three,while Poirer had 8 or 9 fucking wars.In each one accept the Khabib fight he has shoved adaptions and come out stronger from each one.Connor didn't have that...If it gets rough Poirer has showed and learned the ability to adapt and pull something,Connor didn't have a chance for that in the last five years.If Mcregor is such a talent that he overcomes lack of serious training and dedication,lack of competitive matches through the years,then hats of to him and I'll live with me losing that bet