$1 million cash or a chance to win $1 billion on a coin flip?

[HeffDoesWant]

I understand the difference. And I’m not talking about measly dividends. I’m talking actual investing. I’ve made 30% gains just this year alone. If I did that with 1 mill, that would be 300k a year. Now a billion would be great, unless you don’t get the billion with is literally a coin toss.

Do not expect 30% p.a.!!!!!!!!!

Buffet hasn't had a 30% p.a long term return average since 98.

 

[KeepingItReal]

I would take the million all day everyday.

 

[StopDucking]

Not at all, you have a 50% chance of going home witrh zero.

Expected value of option 1:
1,000,000 x 100% = $1,000,000

Expected value of option 2:
1,000,000,000 x 50% = $500,000,000

 

[StopDucking]

Too late to add a Poll?

You'd have to ask a mod since I don't have a premium account.

 

[Bald1]

$1 000 000 no hesitation. Flip a few houses with little overhead, then keep every third one as long term investments. Wouldn't take more than 2 years to be comfortable for the rest of my life no matter what happens.

 

[benebox]

Everyone who chose the mil are probably going to stay poor.

 

[Soma]

I’d take the 2 million.

 

[John Mabrey]

Expected value of option 1:
1,000,000 x 100% = $1,000,000

Expected value of option 2:
1,000,000,000 x 50% = $500,000,000

If you lose the coin flip, the expected value is 0

 

[no fat chicks]

I'm flipping.

I owe it to my family and friends.

Plus I'd be able to feed a bunch of starving kids.







And all the whores!

 

[Mike]

Everyone who chose the mil are probably going to stay poor.

If anything gamblers are usually the ones that end up poor.

 

[Legumes]

I'd take the guaranteed million.

 

[BB in Crazy!!!!]

Do not expect 30% p.a.!!!!!!!!!

Buffet hasn't had a 30% p.a long term return average since 98.

I could have sold at 60% a few weeks ago, I would have cleared over 100% had I pulled the trigger and a few different ones I waited to long for. But the vast majority of this is in crypto, so it’s higher risk as well.

 

[BB in Crazy!!!!]

If you lose the coin flip, the expected value is 0

They don’t seem to understand that how that math works. Just because you have a 50% doesn’t chance mean you get half. It means mathematically the risk is worth up to 500 mill. But if you lose you get nothing. So the risk is subjective because you are getting an absolute million or a gamble. So we are essentially gambling 1 million dollars for a 50/50 chance a 1 billion. Those a great odds, if you are willing to risk a million. It’s all relative to what a person is willing to risk.

 

[Takes_Two_To_Tango]

Good question. I don't know what to do. lol

 

[TCE]

Good question.

I went for the million when I thought of it quickly but I can definitely see myself taking the coin flip.

 

[tuckermaclain]

The bitch would be would be to take the million, then flip the coin to see that you would have won a billion. That would suck some.

 

[jeffk]

Million.

 

[Vil7]

I'd take the million. That's a lot of tree fittys.

 

[Mike]

They don’t seem to understand that how that math works. Just because you have a 50% doesn’t chance mean you get half. It means mathematically the risk is worth up to 500 mill. But if you lose you get nothing. So the risk is subjective because you are getting an absolute million or a gamble. So we are essentially gambling 1 million dollars for a 50/50 chance a 1 billion. Those a great odds, if you are willing to risk a million. It’s all relative to what a person is willing to risk.

Yeah this comes down to if a million is life changing money or not. It certainly is for me. I wouldn't give up that absolute certainty for a chance.

 

[Snackbar]

Bunch of guys scraping by saying they either have millions already, or can make it easy. Oh internet, don't change.

I would take the million, pay off any debts, put the rest into my kids and more ag land, and keep working.