Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2018

[BluntTrauma21]

Honest question @mkess101 @iGnP etc. I don't post in this section nearly as much as I used to, b/c the mma discussion has went to shit compared to the older days, so I just kind of stay away other than here once in awhile, boxing, and Shark's horse racing thread which are still great.

My point is a lot of ppl think posting lines they like before fights are being monitored by other lurkers or possibly even moreso books that want to get ahead/and or general read of the action. The matter doesn't solely rest on how much we bet, but I feel like there's something to be said about many of us hiding our leans until lines are up on the books. I kinda believe that. No matter how much you're betting per game/fight/ whatever, there's only an x amount of action for bookies to react, right?

My question is do you think that these threads move lines and books are looking at these to determine more accurate lines? We can't avoid it but I think it's actually more likely than not.

I'm in conspiracy mode, I see you bookie spies. I see you fuckers.

 

[mkess101]

Honest question @mkess101 @iGnP etc. I don't post in this section nearly as much as I used to, b/c the mma discussion has went to shit compared to the older days, so I just kind of stay away other than here once in awhile, boxing, and Shark's horse racing thread which are still great.

My point is a lot of ppl think posting lines they like before fights are being monitored by other lurkers or possibly even moreso books that want to get ahead/and or general read of the action. The matter doesn't solely rest on how much we bet, but I feel like there's something to be said about many of us hiding our leans until lines are up on the books. I kinda believe that. No matter how much you're betting per game/fight/ whatever, there's only an x amount of action for bookies to react, right?

My question is do you think that these threads move lines and books are looking at these to determine more accurate lines? I feel like it's more likely than not. We can't avoid it but I think it's actually more likely than not.

I'm in conspiracy mode, I see you bookie spies. I see you fuckers.

Here is how I would look at it:

If I was in charge of an offshore site and my people that set lines weren't checking in on places like this (at least periodically or right before releasing lines) I would be PISSED. Now, keeping in mind that everything needs to be taken in context (since they need to look at a wide variety of info), my short answer is this forum specifically absolutely can affect lines-even before they are released. This is the MMA forum with the most active members worldwide. We are in a forum specifically labeled "MMA betting". MMA gets a fraction of the action of a lot of other sports. So it just makes sense that they would scope things out here.

They would never look in this thread though LOL. We mean literally nothing to any books when it comes to major sports betting. (Aside from random draft props LOL which we evidently can move lines on).

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Odds makers for non mainstream sports need all the insight and reference they can get.
This is a point of insight and reference.

I don’t post any speculation about lines because it doesn’t help me in any way.

 

[iGnP]

I’m looking into the Utah/Okc game. Pretty sure I’ll be on OKC +4 and a sprinkle on the ML

 

[mkess101]

Man I am not liking how many places are projecting Allen to be the Browns pick. It's bizarre to me they'd take yet another boom or bust type guy first, but the more I read the more I think it's only like 60% Darnold and 40% Allen. I've added a little more to Allen being the first QB at +250, limiting my exposure to Darnold (assuming it's not Mayfield, in which case I'm taking an absolute bath).

 

[iGnP]

ok fine im hedging half my bet ($100 lol) w Josh Allen first QB taken +250. can the browns really be that incompetent...?

 

[mkess101]

ok fine im hedging half my bet ($100 lol) w Josh Allen first QB taken +250. can the browns really be that incompetent...?

At first I thought "No way". And I keep seeing all these places projecting them to take him, they love his raw ability and he can sit behind Tyrod for a year, blah blah blah. And it's like 50/50 (Darnold or Allen) on what I'd consider actual legit sites that have real NFL sources. I totally get that misdirection and misinformation is everything leading up to the draft, but in the end I decided I just don't want a so much exposure to a prop that relies on what's been the most poorly run franchise in pro sports actually making the correct decision. Now I can take a moderate win if it's Darnold, a small loss if it's Allen, and if they somehow take Mayfield I will retire from any NFL related betting forever as I clearly would not know shit about it and would lose my ass if it's him.

Edit: I've freaked myself out enough about it being Mayfield that I checked odds on him. LOL look at this...

Mayfield to be #1 overall pick: +700
Mayfield to be first QB selected: +1250

I put 5 damn dollars on him being first QB just in case. I will still be gutted, but this takes a tiny amount of the sting out if those morons take him #1.

 

[mkess101]

Took OKC +5 for 1.5u and OKC ML +185 for .5u

 

[Monster Meat]

Took OKC +5 for 1.5u and OKC ML +185 for .5u

Like it on okc plus 5 as well

 

[iGnP]

At first I thought "No way". And I keep seeing all these places projecting them to take him, they love his raw ability and he can sit behind Tyrod for a year, blah blah blah. And it's like 50/50 (Darnold or Allen) on what I'd consider actual legit sites that have real NFL sources. I totally get that misdirection and misinformation is everything leading up to the draft, but in the end I decided I just don't want a so much exposure to a prop that relies on what's been the most poorly run franchise in pro sports actually making the correct decision. Now I can take a moderate win if it's Darnold, a small loss if it's Allen, and if they somehow take Mayfield I will retire from any NFL related betting forever as I clearly would not know shit about it and would lose my ass if it's him.

Edit: I've freaked myself out enough about it being Mayfield that I checked odds on him. LOL look at this...

Mayfield to be #1 overall pick: +700
Mayfield to be first QB selected: +1250

I put 5 damn dollars on him being first QB just in case. I will still be gutted, but this takes a tiny amount of the sting out if those morons take him #1.

it makes no logical sense. has to be a smokescreen. i hedged half of my bet to protect myself to a new "leak" but i fully intend on buying in again on Darnold if the line stays where it is.

can you tell me why its so much cheaper to get Darnold #1 pick versus Darnold first QB taken? is Saquon really in play for #1?

 

[mkess101]

it makes no logical sense. has to be a smokescreen. i hedged half of my bet to protect myself to a new "leak" but i fully intend on buying in again on Darnold if the line stays where it is.

can you tell me why its so much cheaper to get Darnold #1 pick versus Darnold first QB taken? is Saquon really in play for #1?

My guess is it's the same reason that you sometimes see "fighter x wins inside distance" pay better than "fighter x wins by KO". People blindly betting these props without looking to see if there's a better option. So the lines move independent of each other purely based on $ getting bet on that specific line, despite the fact it's not really logical.

Barkley isn't in play for #1 imo. I mean, maybe a .5% chance or something at best I guess. Literally the ONLY way Dorsey would do that is if he was sitting there and had NO preference at all between Darnold, Allen, and Mayfield and REALLY liked Barkley that much to where he'd rather take him first and take whichever QB fell to #4. But...it's not happening.

 

[mkess101]

Westbrook playing out of control and picks up 4th foul on a charge 30 feet from the basket. SMH.

Thunder playing too emotionally, and it's not just Westbrook (who seems more interested in punking Rubio than winning this game). George, Adams, and even reserve guys like Grant are looking for conflict instead of just playing.

 

[burge13]

I love watching Westbrook lose.

He'll have more money than me when he retires but we'll have the same amount of NBA championships...

 

[iGnP]

Westbrook playing out of control and picks up 4th foul on a charge 30 feet from the basket. SMH.

Thunder playing too emotionally, and it's not just Westbrook (who seems more interested in punking Rubio than winning this game). George, Adams, and even reserve guys like Grant are looking for conflict instead of just playing.

Utah played this game beautifully. PG getting punked by Ingles and Westbrook is imploding.

This is exactly why i didnt think it was fair to criticize KD for leaving OKC. Westbrook, for as exciting and dynamic as he is, is a cancer (which is why im usually fading them)

 

[mkess101]

Utah played this game beautifully. PG getting punked by Ingles and Westbrook is imploding.

This is exactly why i didnt think it was fair to criticize KD for leaving OKC. Westbrook, for as exciting and dynamic as he is, is a cancer (which is why im usually fading them)

Of all the teams in the playoffs, the Thunder handle the inevitable swings of emotion in an NBA game worse than any of them. Westbrook partly to blame for sure. Maybe Billy Donovan a bit too, IDK. They come unraveled and take bad shots, force things, etc. And they look at times dejected, at times pissed, but never calm.

 

[burge13]

Utah played this game beautifully. PG getting punked by Ingles and Westbrook is imploding.

This is exactly why i didnt think it was fair to criticize KD for leaving OKC. Westbrook, for as exciting and dynamic as he is, is a cancer (which is why im usually fading them)

Exactly the same as my view. I didn't bet this series as I thought my dislike for Russ was clouding my judgement but turns out I was right (or so it seems. Still at least one game to go)

He wanted more help, got what he wanted and fared no better. Russ is the problem & a stat padder!

Edit: And Melo has a $28M option for next year. Good luck with that Thunder

 

[iGnP]

Exactly the same as my view. I didn't bet this series as I thought my dislike for Russ was clouding my judgement but turns out I was right (or so it seems. Still at least one game to go)

He wanted more help, got what he wanted and fared no better. Russ is the problem & a stat padder!

Edit: And Melo has a $28M option for next year. Good luck with that Thunder

see, i actually did bet them for the series. i thought the OKC defense would give the Jazz offense issues and the Thunder would ultimately prevail bc of more talent. boy was i wrong. theyll prob win game 5 and get spanked in game 6

 

[iGnP]

Of all the teams in the playoffs, the Thunder handle the inevitable swings of emotion in an NBA game worse than any of them. Westbrook partly to blame for sure. Maybe Billy Donovan a bit too, IDK. They come unraveled and take bad shots, force things, etc. And they look at times dejected, at times pissed, but never calm.

also doesnt help that Melo is stealing 26 M from them this season. He's shooting just about 38% for this series and contributing jack shit on defense

 

[mkess101]

see, i actually did bet them for the series. i thought the OKC defense would give the Jazz offense issues and the Thunder would ultimately prevail bc of more talent. boy was i wrong. theyll prob win game 5 and get spanked in game 6

They honestly don't even look like the more talented team do they? Yeah Westbrook and PG but otherwise...? Melo is a shell of what he was. Adams is a nice role player inside. Utah is just way more talented than they get credit for I think. Gobert is a top tier center given what he does on defense. Favors is an underrated 4 (esp against teams that try to play small ball where he can overpower some guys). Rubio is a great fit to run the show, and Mitchell is a straight up budding superstar. Ingles is a terrific role player...I think they may be more talented overall than OKC. Check that, I think they ARE more talented.

 

[iGnP]

They honestly don't even look like the more talented team do they? Yeah Westbrook and PG but otherwise...? Melo is a shell of what he was. Adams is a nice role player inside. Utah is just way more talented than they get credit for I think. Gobert is a top tier center given what he does on defense. Favors is an underrated 4 (esp against teams that try to play small ball where he can overpower some guys). Rubio is a great fit to run the show, and Mitchell is a straight up budding superstar. Ingles is a terrific role player...I think they may be more talented overall than OKC. Check that, I think they ARE more talented.

No, OKC is def more talented. Utah is a smarter and better coached team