International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[lsa]

Ukraine claims to have shot down 3 planes this morning

2 SU 34 and 1 SU 35

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

I'm not saying Putin is some understandable guy that we can rationalize with. Trade offs are going to have to be made, obviously. But no serious effort has been made by either side to halt this.

That's partially because some people are still living in la la land, and seriously think Ukraine can push Russia out anytime soon

UKR isnt pushing Russia out anytime soon, however if they dig in and make strong defensive lines to minimize loses and let Russia keep running into bullets that is their best plan.
They dont need to go on offensives if risk for loses is too high, Russia is getting hit hard inside with oil depots and other logistics getting pummeled at a major cost. Russia cant keep up going all in and think it's sustainable long term.
How many soldiers and equipment did Russia lose just getting Avdiivka? 3 more jets on top of that and that was to grab a destroyed city.

 

[SakurabasEar]

UKR isnt pushing Russia out anytime soon, however if they dig in and make strong defensive lines to minimize loses and let Russia keep running into bullets that is their best plan.
They dont need to go on offensives if risk for loses is too high, Russia is getting hit hard inside with oil depots and other logistics getting pummeled at a major cost. Russia cant keep up going all in and think it's sustainable long term.
How many soldiers and equipment did Russia lose just getting Avdiivka? 3 more jets on top of that and that was to grab a destroyed city.

It wasn't just a destroyed non-essential city. It was a fortress city that was supposed to serve as the spring board to donetsk. This was Russia's best victory since the failed Ukrainian counter-offensive, and its unfortunate

The problem with your assessment, is that it appears the Russians are no longer just "running into bullets". They're fighting smarter. And the bullets might start disappearing if the 61 billion doller aid package doesn't get the go soon from the house of representatives.


Now don't get me wrong, its not like Russia is just going to run them over anytime soon. But I think its becoming clear with or without aid, that Ukraine doesn't possess the capacity to push them out.

 

[AWilder]

UKR isnt pushing Russia out anytime soon, however if they dig in and make strong defensive lines to minimize loses and let Russia keep running into bullets that is their best plan.
They dont need to go on offensives if risk for loses is too high, Russia is getting hit hard inside with oil depots and other logistics getting pummeled at a major cost. Russia cant keep up going all in and think it's sustainable long term.
How many soldiers and equipment did Russia lose just getting Avdiivka? 3 more jets on top of that and that was to grab a destroyed city.

I've seen some claims that Avdiivka was worse for Russia than Bakhmut. 100k casualties and way more armor lost.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

It wasn't just a destroyed non-essential city. It was a fortress city that was supposed to serve as the spring board to donetsk. This was Russia's best victory since the failed Ukrainian counter-offensive, and its unfortunate

The problem with your assessment, is that it appears the Russians are no longer just "running into bullets". They're fighting smarter. And the bullets might start disappearing if the 61 billion doller aid package doesn't get the go soon from the house of representatives.


Now don't get me wrong, its not like Russia is just going to run them over anytime soon. But I think its becoming clear with or without aid, that Ukraine doesn't possess the capacity to push them out.

Ive said I dont expect them to push Russia out Militarily wise. Russia will lose this war from within, UKR just has to hold on as long as they can with keeping loses as ow as possible. The cost of this victory was massive for Russia but Putin doesnt care. It's about having something to tout for his open, transparent and honest elections.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

I've seen some claims that Avdiivka was worse for Russia than Bakhmut. 100k casualties and way more armor lost.

I've read that also on multiple sources, Still amazed between commanders, generals, oligarch's and ants that putin will keep killing as many as it takes just for a few km's of land while his country is starting to implode from within.

 

[MTT]

I've seen some claims that Avdiivka was worse for Russia than Bakhmut. 100k casualties and way more armor lost.

They paid a steep price in capturing Avdiivka. Trading land for lopsided casualty numbers is the game Ukraine must play. Putin doesn't have an endless supply of bodies and political capital to continue forever, despite claims to the contrary. Hence the full-blown PR campaign to slow down American military aid via 'truth-tellers' like Mr. Tucker.

 

[SakurabasEar]

Ive said I dont expect them to push Russia out Militarily wise. Russia will lose this war from within, UKR just has to hold on as long as they can with keeping loses as ow as possible. The cost of this victory was massive for Russia but Putin doesnt care. It's about having something to tout for his open, transparent and honest elections.

Russia is not losing this war from within, the sanctions have largely failed. Their economic situation has stabilized

You're reading a bunch of bs, bs that supports the people who are profiting from this disgusting meat grinder

 

[TheGreatA]

I've read that also on multiple sources, Still amazed between commanders, generals, oligarch's and ants that putin will keep killing as many as it takes just for a few km's of land while his country is starting to implode from within.

He probably feels it's better to have these young, idle, aggressive men dying in Ukraine than have them be a threat to his power in Russia. Putin isn't too worried about a bunch of old folks and widows.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Russia is not losing this war from within, the sanctions have largely failed. Their economic situation has stabilized

You're reading a bunch of bs, bs that supports the people who are profiting from this disgusting meat grinder

And not sure what you've been reading either but it sounds like some good ole fashion Russian prrrrrropaggggganda.

So please tell me how you invision this "peace" plan to take place.?

 

[Cole train]

More rumours about robotyne being the next focus point in upcoming days/months/years/eternity

 

[ViD]

I've seen some claims that Avdiivka was worse for Russia than Bakhmut. 100k casualties and way more armor lost.

Keep dreaming

 

[SakurabasEar]

And not sure what you've been reading either but it sounds like some good ole fashion Russian prrrrrropaggggganda.

So please tell me how you invision this "peace" plan to take place.?

Its not russian propaganda, its the view of many journalists over at substack, who try to remain unbiased and my own digging. I can refer you a couple if you'd like

Now as for the negotiations, I can't tell you how a plan should work until they can come to the table at least. That should have happened after the failed counter offensive last year. With time, the negotiating power of Ukraine will continue to decline. Especially since Russia started its own little war economy out of this

But I can tell you that if they can agree to halt this soon, and bolster with the help of the west while waiting for Putin to die, they can just take advantage of the impending chaos and mount a serious offensive to take the regions back.

 

[Strychnine]

I've seen some claims that Avdiivka was worse for Russia than Bakhmut. 100k casualties and way more armor lost.

I totally believe that.

Pres. Putin's election is right around the corner and he has to have a victory (no matter how pyrrhic) to dangle in front of the masses.

 

[Rod1]

It wasn't just a destroyed non-essential city. It was a fortress city that was supposed to serve as the spring board to donetsk. This was Russia's best victory since the failed Ukrainian counter-offensive, and its unfortunate

This would be a major victory if Russian goals was simply to secure Donetsk but i don't think it will amount to a frontline collapse as people are touting though.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

I totally believe that.

Pres. Putin's election is right around the corner and he has to have a victory (no matter how pyrrhic) to dangle in front of the masses.

The fact that he was risking pilots and jet's shows how insane he was about getting the ruins of a city.

 

[Strychnine]

Bleeding Russia dry over some burnt-out cremains of a city.

 

[grimballer]

adeevka

 

[Rholk]

Seems like it's finally over.

Small positive sign here beeing the call to actually retreat from it, as opposed to holding on for way to long in an attempt to save some political face

 

[grimballer]

a month ago

now