Bernie doesn't know how to build a base.
Here are the facts. He's not stronger than Biden among independents nationwide, and he's certainly not stronger among conservative-leaning independents. The more important truth is that independents and far-leftists just aren't that plentiful. That's why he got creamed by Biden despite the false momentum he gained early on due to Buttgieg and Klobuchar disrupting Biden's base. Still, it's an interesting question how strong he is with Independents in the key battleground states.
THESE SIX STATES COULD DETERMINE THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Experts generally agree that the key swing states to focus on this year are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—all of which were won by Trump in 2016.
They're counting out Minnesota, which I don't think is a certainty, but I'll accept this list. Experts also point to North Carolina as being up for grabs which Trump won by 3.7% in 2016, but who kicked out 9 Republicans from the House in 2018, and elected a Democratic governor.
Using CNN's exit polls:
(Total Electoral Votes) Independents, Biden vs. Bernie
(11)
Arizona = 37% vs.
51%
(29)
Florida =
48% vs. 32%
(16)
Michigan = 42% vs.
46%
(15)
North Carolina = 29% vs.
34%
(20) Pennsylvania = n/a
(10) Wisconsin = n/a
Bernie has lost every one of the first four battleground states that has voted so far: Michigan by 19%, North Carolina by 17%, Arizona by 11%, and most critically of all, Florida by a 3-to-1 margin of nearly 40%. Meanwhile, every one of these four states has either a closed or semi-closed primary, so the independents being polled here are all already signaling an intent to vote for a Democrat. This means Bernie is
barely more popular with left-voting independents state by state (he likely enjoys fewer votes in total across the four), in states where he got creamed by Biden, and not in the state most critical to winning the election-- Florida.
Bernie would have been destroyed in the general election. He would have set a historic margin for underperformance in the electoral vote respective to his popular vote. The primaries are making that clear.
One would hope Berniebots in the USA would accept this truth.