TUF 27

GrantSorenson said:
Good points but does Tavares have the intellect and fight IQ to fight a fight like this? I think he might stay standing and try to beat Adesanya in a striking battle. I'm not sure about Tavares fight IQ. He comes across pretty dumb and he's had it real easy in his last few fights. This is a fight where there is a clear path to victory by mixing wrestling with striking but the guy doesn't come across as the smartest guy in the world.

Adesanya got starched last year. His chin is also suspect

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Tavares reminds me of Theodorou in that he always knows how to fight a winning fight. Maybe he's not well-spoken but on fight IQ there's nothing to worry about.
 
kenfloshogun said:
Not Adesanya ITD is Evens.
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Yeah. Israel dec @ +615 also seems like a crazy price. I haven't seen the power game from Israel that makes me think his ITD line should be that favored.
 
kenfloshogun said:
Agreed, considering it as well.
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Saki KO is the same price as Israel ITD, which is nuts to me. Rountree's way more 'proven' as a quitter with 3 mins of cardio, and I don't think anybody'd argue the point that Saki hits significantly harder.

That being said, Saki dec @ +900 also seems a bit much.
 
Anyone know if they are gonna use a small cage?
please this is of utmost importance since SUB and KO percentages go up like 30 percent.
 
If you look at Tavares record, everyone worth a damn has beaten him, if you think Adesanya is a top 15 gatekeeper then yea go ahead and bet Tavares, but if you think Israel has top 5 potential its gonna take a lot more than what Tavares brings to beat him.
 
Dianabol said:
I get what you're saying but guys like you are also the public, if you bet 2-3 figures thats public money. Sharp money is intelligent BIG money, at least 4 figures per play.

I'll let the don explain some 101 for all you rooks.
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Nobody's gonna comment on the fact that this "expert" considers Steve fucking Stevens an authority? Lol
 
molest said:
If you look at Tavares record, everyone worth a damn has beaten him, if you think Adesanya is a top 15 gatekeeper then yea go ahead and bet Tavares, but if you think Israel has top 5 potential its gonna take a lot more than what Tavares brings to beat him.
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Israel's "best" win (meaning best opponent he's beaten) was his last one, a lackluster decision over Vettori. I'd bet Jotko or Theodorou over Vettori at evens, and those are 2 of Brad's last 3 fights (the other being a win over Leites). I mean, does anyone really think Vettori is significantly better than Jotko LOL? And while Israel struggled with Vettori and lost round 3 (even with Vettori clearly tired as hell), Brad pretty much dominated Jotko the entire fight and then put him away.

This fight isn't about Israel's long term potential and eventual ceiling, it's about how good he is now, this Friday night. Based on what we've actually SEEN from both guys in the cage lately, I think it's insanity to pay juice on Israel here. Yeah, he might look better this time and win, but there's no evidence so far to support that. Doesn't mean his long term ceiling isn't higher than Brad's, it just means right now Brad looks like the more well rounded fighter. So at dog odds, it's kind of a no-brainer to me.
 
Adesanya looks undersized too. Certainly not a big MW...Could he make 170?
 
mkess101 said:
Israel's "best" win (meaning best opponent he's beaten) was his last one, a lackluster decision over Vettori. I'd bet Jotko or Theodorou over Vettori at evens, and those are 2 of Brad's last 3 fights (the other being a win over Leites). I mean, does anyone really think Vettori is significantly better than Jotko LOL? And while Israel struggled with Vettori and lost round 3 (even with Vettori clearly tired as hell), Brad pretty much dominated Jotko the entire fight and then put him away.

This fight isn't about Israel's long term potential and eventual ceiling, it's about how good he is now, this Friday night. Based on what we've actually SEEN from both guys in the cage lately, I think it's insanity to pay juice on Israel here. Yeah, he might look better this time and win, but there's no evidence so far to support that. Doesn't mean his long term ceiling isn't higher than Brad's, it just means right now Brad looks like the more well rounded fighter. So at dog odds, it's kind of a no-brainer to me.
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Betting is almost never about what we've seen, for example last week we never saw Edwards dominate a guy of Cerrone's caliber, we never saw that chinese chick fight with an outside striking game, i just mostly look for good lines and make decisions based on guesses and assumptions that follow a certain logic. I just think Israel is a better striker than Tavares and Tavares never really beats guys with his wrestling i dont think i've ever seen him complete a power double, now if the cage is small i can see him walling and stalling his way to a decision but im not sure if its the small cage.
 
molest said:
Betting is almost never about what we've seen, for example last week we never saw Edwards dominate a guy of Cerrone's caliber, we never saw that chinese chick fight with an outside striking game, i just mostly look for good lines and make decisions based on guesses and assumptions that follow a certain logic. I just think Israel is a better striker than Tavares and Tavares never really beats guys with his wrestling i dont think i've ever seen him complete a power double, now if the cage is small i can see him walling and stalling his way to a decision but im not sure if its the small cage.
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Someone with Twitter should hit up Jimmy Smith about the cage size on Friday. He told Luke Thomas on The MMA Hour on Monday that he was calling the fights for the TUF Finale.
 
molest said:
Betting is almost never about what we've seen, for example last week we never saw Edwards dominate a guy of Cerrone's caliber, we never saw that chinese chick fight with an outside striking game, i just mostly look for good lines and make decisions based on guesses and assumptions that follow a certain logic. I just think Israel is a better striker than Tavares and Tavares never really beats guys with his wrestling i dont think i've ever seen him complete a power double, now if the cage is small i can see him walling and stalling his way to a decision but im not sure if its the small cage.
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Well, we still haven't seen Edwards "dominate" a guy of Cerrone's caliber. We've seen him win a close decision over a guy Cerrone's caliber LOL. But that aside...

I would agree that at face value, Israel is the better pure striker than Brad. But MMA doesn't work that way. Brad generally hasn't used his wrestling because he's been fighting guys where he's the better striker. Israel showed lackluster ability to defend the TD or do anything on the ground vs Vettori. Brad is at least on Vettori's level with his grappling, and is a MUCH better striker. There are plenty of other ways to get guys to the mat than a power double too.

Unless we think Brad and all his coaches are absolutely clueless, (and if you do, so be it), it's safe to assume they will incorporate SOME kind of grappling into the gameplan. Even if it's some level changes just to keep Israel off balance and worried about the TD, that can even out the striking (because that's not something Brad has to worry about at all).
 
JimGunn said:
Someone with Twitter should hit up Jimmy Smith about the cage size on Friday. He told Luke Thomas on The MMA Hour on Monday that he was calling the fights for the TUF Finale.
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Someone should just hack them. Get a quick rundown on who assembles the cages, things like event planning services around LV and/or event planning services specific to certain hotels and it couldn't be that hard to track down one guy on that crew and contact them over the internet. What's there to lose? It's not like it's an SEC violation.
 
OutRun said:
Someone should just hack them. Get a quick rundown on who assembles the cages, things like event planning services around LV and/or event planning services specific to certain hotels and it couldn't be that hard to track down one guy on that crew and contact them over the internet. What's there to lose? It's not like it's an SEC violation.
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<Varys01>
 
JimGunn said:
Someone with Twitter should hit up Jimmy Smith about the cage size on Friday. He told Luke Thomas on The MMA Hour on Monday that he was calling the fights for the TUF Finale.
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At that venue it’s almost guaranteed to be the smaller octagon. Haven’t heard anything official though.
 
When are we going to get the Gianetti vs Trizano line?
 
burge13 said:
Adesanya looks undersized too. Certainly not a big MW...Could he make 170?
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I was thinking the same thing, but maybe he is too tall to drop 14 more pounds (his last fight he was 184 i think). If he drops to 170 he will have a huuuge height and reach advantage.
 
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