Israel's "best" win (meaning best opponent he's beaten) was his last one, a lackluster decision over Vettori. I'd bet Jotko or Theodorou over Vettori at evens, and those are 2 of Brad's last 3 fights (the other being a win over Leites). I mean, does anyone really think Vettori is significantly better than Jotko LOL? And while Israel struggled with Vettori and lost round 3 (even with Vettori clearly tired as hell), Brad pretty much dominated Jotko the entire fight and then put him away.
This fight isn't about Israel's long term potential and eventual ceiling, it's about how good he is now, this Friday night. Based on what we've actually SEEN from both guys in the cage lately, I think it's insanity to pay juice on Israel here. Yeah, he might look better this time and win, but there's no evidence so far to support that. Doesn't mean his long term ceiling isn't higher than Brad's, it just means right now Brad looks like the more well rounded fighter. So at dog odds, it's kind of a no-brainer to me.
The small cage factor kills a lot of my confidence in Adesanya, Pena, and Caceres
Are their real stats that back up your thoughts?
Wouldnt a small cage help guys back up and use the cage to defend a take down? I know dirty boxing in the clinch is a factor.
It's a fact that these guys like their range and that the smaller cage is a detriment to them. Not sure what kind of stat could be applied to that.
its held in T-Mobile Arena no? why would it be a small cage?
oh i see was it moved or something? sherdog and tapology says T-MobileNo, it's at the Pearl Theatre
It's a fact that they PREFER it. But is it a fact that it really makes that big of a difference? Wouldnt a bigger cage help wrestlers keep their opponent away from the cage thus keeping them from using it to stand up? I'm sure theres a stat out there somewhere.
Vetorri is a good fighter and I believe Israel when he says he is a much tougher fight than Tavares stylistically.
Are their real stats that back up your thoughts?
Wouldnt a small cage help guys back up and use the cage to defend a take down? I know dirty boxing in the clinch is a factor.
I like Joe Giannetti as a -155 favorite vs Mike Trizano in the lightweight tournament final. Trizano mostly fought at featherweight and Giannetti willl be the bigger man with a more varied skill set. I also like John Gunther as a near pick 'em over Allan Zuniga via wrestling and grinding. Zuniga is much too small to fight at 155 pounds and should drop to featherweight or even bantamweight if possible against UFC level competition. Zuniga has a puncher's chance, but Gunther's hard head and ability to absorb punishment should mean he gets Zuniga down and controls him.
I haven't seen either fighter's pre-TUF fights other than the highlights they showed on the episodes. So I wouldn't go too heavy on this in any case, just to win 1 unit.Have you seen Joe's pre TUF fights? It's possibly he's greatly improved in the house at his age, but he looked awful before. Terrible comp on the show so can't put too much stock into those performances