TUF 27

The small cage factor kills a lot of my confidence in Adesanya, Pena, and Caceres
 
Israel's "best" win (meaning best opponent he's beaten) was his last one, a lackluster decision over Vettori. I'd bet Jotko or Theodorou over Vettori at evens, and those are 2 of Brad's last 3 fights (the other being a win over Leites). I mean, does anyone really think Vettori is significantly better than Jotko LOL? And while Israel struggled with Vettori and lost round 3 (even with Vettori clearly tired as hell), Brad pretty much dominated Jotko the entire fight and then put him away.

This fight isn't about Israel's long term potential and eventual ceiling, it's about how good he is now, this Friday night. Based on what we've actually SEEN from both guys in the cage lately, I think it's insanity to pay juice on Israel here. Yeah, he might look better this time and win, but there's no evidence so far to support that. Doesn't mean his long term ceiling isn't higher than Brad's, it just means right now Brad looks like the more well rounded fighter. So at dog odds, it's kind of a no-brainer to me.

Vetorri is a good fighter and I believe Israel when he says he is a much tougher fight than Tavares stylistically.

The small cage factor kills a lot of my confidence in Adesanya, Pena, and Caceres

Are their real stats that back up your thoughts?

Wouldnt a small cage help guys back up and use the cage to defend a take down? I know dirty boxing in the clinch is a factor.
 
Are their real stats that back up your thoughts?

Wouldnt a small cage help guys back up and use the cage to defend a take down? I know dirty boxing in the clinch is a factor.

It's a fact that these guys like their range and that the smaller cage is a detriment to them. Not sure what kind of stat could be applied to that.
 
It's a fact that these guys like their range and that the smaller cage is a detriment to them. Not sure what kind of stat could be applied to that.

It's a fact that they PREFER it. But is it a fact that it really makes that big of a difference? Wouldnt a bigger cage help wrestlers keep their opponent away from the cage thus keeping them from using it to stand up? I'm sure theres a stat out there somewhere.
 
It's a proven statistic that there are more finishes in smaller cages- Reed Kuhn's Fightnomics book and articles on MMA Oddsbreaker have demonstrated this. But applying it to an individual fight can be risky. I tend to bet more unders and fight does not go distance on small cage fight cards and it usually works out well.
 
its held in T-Mobile Arena no? why would it be a small cage?
 
It's a fact that they PREFER it. But is it a fact that it really makes that big of a difference? Wouldnt a bigger cage help wrestlers keep their opponent away from the cage thus keeping them from using it to stand up? I'm sure theres a stat out there somewhere.

That's kinda what I said, they like their range. Good luck finding that stat, range striker vs wrestler in small cage. And that would only apply to 2/3 of the mentioned match ups, Bravo isn't a wrestler but likes to pressure you to the cage and unload while Caceres will be looking to circle out. Also how often do you see open space TDs? Most are against the cage, which is what we've seen from Smullen and Brad.
 
"According to UFC officials, the organization does not “proactively” reach out to fighters to tell them which cage they’ll be fighting in. In past years the 25-foot octagon might have only come out for “The Ultimate Fighter” finale events, such as the ones that took place in the cramped Pearl at The Palms venue in Las Vegas."

found this in an old article.. so i guess it will be a small cage but nobody confirmed it yet right?
 
Small cage is very good for my bet on Brad Tavares.
 
anybody been able to find any of Zuñiga's recent fights vs Salazar or Bendei, Chalo? really want to fade Gunther here but need some footage besides his TUF fight
 
Vetorri is a good fighter and I believe Israel when he says he is a much tougher fight than Tavares stylistically.



Are their real stats that back up your thoughts?

Wouldnt a small cage help guys back up and use the cage to defend a take down? I know dirty boxing in the clinch is a factor.

Nothing I've seen from Vettori tells me he's any better than Jotko or the other guys Tavares has easily beaten.
 
Will give my opinions on some of these fights after I get my bets in at odds that I want (have to win $50 limits) I like a few of these
 
I like Joe Giannetti as a -155 favorite vs Mike Trizano in the lightweight tournament final. Trizano mostly fought at featherweight and Giannetti willl be the bigger man with a more varied skill set. I also like John Gunther as a near pick 'em over Allan Zuniga via wrestling and grinding. Zuniga is much too small to fight at 155 pounds and should drop to featherweight or even bantamweight if possible against UFC level competition. Zuniga has a puncher's chance, but Gunther's hard head and ability to absorb punishment should mean he gets Zuniga down and controls him.
 
no way i could ever back a fighter like Gunther =/ his striking is on the same level as Dandois lol if he cant get takedowns he is fucked... decided to pass for now since its likely small cage and i have no clue how Zuniga's tdd is
 
I like Joe Giannetti as a -155 favorite vs Mike Trizano in the lightweight tournament final. Trizano mostly fought at featherweight and Giannetti willl be the bigger man with a more varied skill set. I also like John Gunther as a near pick 'em over Allan Zuniga via wrestling and grinding. Zuniga is much too small to fight at 155 pounds and should drop to featherweight or even bantamweight if possible against UFC level competition. Zuniga has a puncher's chance, but Gunther's hard head and ability to absorb punishment should mean he gets Zuniga down and controls him.

Have you seen Joe's pre TUF fights? It's possibly he's greatly improved in the house at his age, but he looked awful before. Terrible comp on the show so can't put too much stock into those performances
 
Have you seen Joe's pre TUF fights? It's possibly he's greatly improved in the house at his age, but he looked awful before. Terrible comp on the show so can't put too much stock into those performances
I haven't seen either fighter's pre-TUF fights other than the highlights they showed on the episodes. So I wouldn't go too heavy on this in any case, just to win 1 unit.
 
MMAJunkie says small cage



And Israel says it's not a problem

 
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Gianetti -210 is mighty hilarious imo that’s some very very very dumb money
 
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