TUF 28 Finale RDA vs Usman

i lost $10,700 cash out of the bottom of a suitcase yesterday so im going to be relying on u guys this weekend to make some of it back. if anyones curious, the police reports been filed and we're gonna get security footage from the bank to get to the bottom of it. we're gonna bring all 107 uncirculated $100 bills home.

i already visited the gold store next to it that paid me the money and we went thru the security footage together this morning and now we're narrowed in on the bank next to it i waited in front of to get my uber. but they wont give up the footage without police saying so so its gonna be awhile.
 
conmemay said:
I didnt see much of Aguilar but saw his last fight and he didnt look that good. He didnt win that fight til the other guy started to slow down in the 2nd and 3rd. His striking doesnt look that sharp. He ko Le off of the spinning kick which is good but Glenn wont be throwing reckless that way. He's in ur face, high pace high pressure all the time. I think he edges out a decision.
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His last fight was on short notice up a weight class. Do you watch AXS at all? I've seen Aguilar fight probably like 8+ times. His fight vs. Gomez was easily the worst performance that I've seen by him. His hands are without a doubt leaps and bounds above Glenn. Glenn gets by on a chin and pressure, which is solid. I was one of the few not in the circle jerk on Tucker and backed Glenn. Glenn thrives on guys that are looking to steamroll him. I see Aguilar with a gameplan similar to Dunham's and just pick him off throughout standing.
 
buckwheatloaf said:
i lost $10,700 cash out of the bottom of a suitcase yesterday so im going to be relying on u guys this weekend to make some of it back. if anyones curious, the police reports been filed and we're gonna get security footage from the bank to get to the bottom of it. we're gonna bring all 107 uncirculated $100 bills home.

i already visited the gold store next to it that paid me the money and we went thru the security footage together this morning and now we're narrowed in on the bank next to it i waited in front of to get my uber. but they wont give up the footage without police saying so so its gonna be awhile.
Click to expand...

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so i sold like 1200 ounces of silver that was my brothers behind his back, to pay back my loan to him for $16000 that he wouldn't pay me even though hes way more financially better off than me.

i had to lug it to the gold place in a suitcase since it wouldn't fit in a backpack and it has a zipper all the way around the bottom so when i put the money in (they gave me an envelope for the money but it wouldn't all fit inside) the bundles of 100s ended up slipping out the bottom. when i got home i only had the 100 50s left in the envelope ;-;

the police love my story btw
 
Oblivian said:
His last fight was on short notice up a weight class. Do you watch AXS at all? I've seen Aguilar fight probably like 8+ times. His fight vs. Gomez was easily the worst performance that I've seen by him. His hands are without a doubt leaps and bounds above Glenn. Glenn gets by on a chin and pressure, which is solid. I was one of the few not in the circle jerk on Tucker and backed Glenn. Glenn thrives on guys that are looking to steamroll him. I see Aguilar with a gameplan similar to Dunham's and just pick him off throughout standing.
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Yeah i dont watch AXS, dont have much free time these days so my read is pretty much based on Aguilars last fight. His striking looked alright vs Jackson but Glenn is definitely better than Jackson. Comparing Aguilar's striking to Nover, who do you think is a better striker?
 
conmemay said:
Yeah i dont watch AXS, dont have much free time these days so my read is pretty much based on Aguilars last fight. His striking looked alright vs Jackson but Glenn is definitely better than Jackson. Comparing Aguilar's striking to Nover, who do you think is a better striker?
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Aguilar's hands are definitely better. He definitely cuts angles to create punches. Glenn is an open target honestly, but he's just tough as hell and keeps coming. The key is to keep your footwork and just keep picking at him. Dunham made Glenn look like a clown standing.
 
Oblivian said:
Aguilar's hands are definitely better. He definitely cuts angles to create punches. Glenn is an open target honestly, but he's just tough as hell and keeps coming. The key is to keep your footwork and just keep picking at him. Dunham made Glenn look like a clown standing.
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Does the Damon Jackson fight not concern you? Manhandled him whenever he could get a hold of him. Aguilar also undersized, always underweight. Hasn't weighed in at 145 since 2015 7 fights ago, meanwhile Glenn in at 148.5
 
This is a weird line to look at, but I think Not Barcelos Rd 1 is way off at -280. Barcelos is not a guy grabbing early finishes often, even against lower competition. He's had 1 first round finish in his last 7 (many against less competition than Gutierrez), and Gutierrez has never been finished. I was actually looking at playing Gutierrez at steep odds as I can see this being pretty back and forth standing, but I think this line is way off. I also don't see Gutierrez getting in an early slugfest.
 
Sadistics said:
Does the Damon Jackson fight not concern you? Manhandled him whenever he could get a hold of him. Aguilar also undersized, always underweight. Hasn't weighed in at 145 since 2015 7 fights ago, meanwhile Glenn in at 148.5
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That's Jackson's game. Look at what he has done since the UFC. Manhandles guys and normally finishes them quickly. That's not Glenn's game. Glenn will have to fight standing quite a bit. I don't think he has near the strength, wrestling, or overall grappling of Jackson.

It's not like we are talking about Aguilar being -250 or something. I've got him near evens, and I definitely favor him here. This is a favorable matchup for him, and unless he goofs on gameplanning, he should be able to keep it standing and pick apart Glenn. It's not like we haven't seen him gameplan before either - he did that vs. Rader throughout without getting sucked into being overaggressive. I've just got a regular size play on him - nothing super heavy. If Glenn wasn't so damn durable and active, I'd probably play Aguilar a bit heavier.
 
Oblivian said:
That's Jackson's game. Look at what he has done since the UFC. Manhandles guys and normally finishes them quickly. That's not Glenn's game. Glenn will have to fight standing quite a bit. I don't think he has near the strength, wrestling, or overall grappling of Jackson.

It's not like we are talking about Aguilar being -250 or something. I've got him near evens, and I definitely favor him here. This is a favorable matchup for him, and unless he goofs on gameplanning, he should be able to keep it standing and pick apart Glenn. It's not like we haven't seen him gameplan before either - he did that vs. Rader throughout without getting sucked into being overaggressive. I've just got a regular size play on him - nothing super heavy. If Glenn wasn't so damn durable and active, I'd probably play Aguilar a bit heavier.
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Fair enough. That line is getting real tempting, if it hits + odds I won't be able to resist
 
Glenn vs Aguilar is split decision city, I'll be surprised if this fight doesn't end in a split
 
Went small on this event.. I have plenty of more action for UFN 142... but I feel good about my bets. I think I break even at least:

Aguilar ML: 1.09u to win 1.07u
Greene ML: 1u to win 0.86u
Benavidez ML: 1u to win 1.1u
RDA ML: 1u to win 2.54u

RDA FTFW!!!!
 
I like Usman a lot but this line is too wide imo. Gotta play RDA at this price. Hate those bets that I kinda expect to lose but consider winning plays on average over time.
 
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