UFC 224 - Nunes vs Pennington - Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
- Thread starter Naught2Sixty
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I'm not touching Dern as a big favorite after the Yoder fight. She looked horrible.
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She got a few TD's though and Yoder is better on the mat than ABC. Even one TD here might be it.
That said, paying -300 or whatever it is now I agree is a bad idea. Glad it went to -180 for a bit, I'm good paying that for Dern in this spot.
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I'm a big fan of AXS fights on Friday and can say she hasn't made the proper improvements. The main thing she's improved is that she's became somewhat effective with looping strikes. Her opponents are worried about the takedown so those land. Her takedowns haven't really improved at all. She's a great grappler, but she's not an instant sub grappler either. That's a bit of a problem for someone who doesn't always get the takedown or they don't come until late in a round.
Yoder should have been a good matchup for her. Someone who welcomes the clinch and grappling while not having much standup. The problem she'll have with Cooper is that she can box and throws punches straight down the middle. I think the odds are so skewed her due to Cooper losing by sub in previous fights, but I honestly don't think Dern gets it there easily. If she does, I'd be surprised if she gets a sub within a minute or two of being on the ground.
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Don't agree that Dern isn't an instant sub type. She sub'd Montana pretty much as soon as she got her down. From memory she didn't get Kaline down until the last minute of r3 and sub'd her before the bell, and against Poulk she jumped on her back pretty much from standing I think and hit an instant sub. Again from memory but i don't think she got Yoder down until last two mins of r3 and had her back and the sub was looking like it was coming. Her debut i guess you can cut her some slack but she had mount for literally three rounds. So even if she's not hitting the sub she's so dominant positionally that as long as she has it on the ground for the last 90 seconds she's likely to steal the round. But yeah Dern's problem is her takedowns suck she can't shoot just tries to drag you down from the fence or hit a hip throw.
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I think these are valid points. I don't think Cooper's tdd is very good though. Even Dern with her average entrances most likely can get Cooper down. Maybe not first attempt and without a little work, but eventually I think she does.
I do agree it's not instant sub if she does, even with Cooper's history of losing by sub. I do think though that Dern will at worst completely control her on the mat, land some gnp, possibly advance to mount or take her back.
Cooper can maybe survive one TD. If she cedes two of them, I think it's a wrap because she won't be able to get back up and she will at best survive and lose those rounds. At worst she gets subbed or pounded out from mount or back mount if she's flattened out. This is a bigger grappling mismatch than Yoder for sure. Although for sure Cooper is the crisper striker and could bust Dern up a bit standing.
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She is for sure more concerned with position. Which is good if you are on her ML-not ad much if you are waiting for her sub prop. Not meaning she's not a top tier sub fighter in WMMA but just that she doesn't take unnecessary chances to try to finish. She's too polished a grappler for that.
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I think Cooper is far more athletic too. That's why Dern had so much trouble with Yoder. I just don't think Dern is going to transition into be that good at MMA. She'll be the BJJ girl who doesn't adapt to wrestling and transitioning her game. Spam winging shots without angles and going for takedowns without entrances.
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One of the best ways to defend a takedown is to not be there to be grabbed on in the first place. Does ABC have the footwork to turn Dern on the spot or circle away from the fence?
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She has footwork, but she's also an aggressive fighter. She probably has the ability to play matador here, but I don't think you can 100% count on that. It's a woman's fight - there is almost always bound to be fighting along the cage. I just don't think Dern will get her down easily unless she has a good timed double leg off of Cooper being overaggressive.
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Brazil underdogs
- Ferreira, Albini, Ramos (not anymore), Santos
I like Pennington at +415, she may be outgunned early on but I think she'll take over in round 3,4,5 and imo she has sharper boxing fundamentals to Nunes which will overcome Nunes' power later on aswell as having the better cardio. But then again, she's a Masvidal type Imo she sometimes over-performs one fight, but under-performs the next.
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Agreed. Can't argue with playing ABC at +350 but I hesitated and I'm not playing her straight up at +220. Not enough. Dern should win but 84% of the time? Come on lol. I think most of the props for dern will be juiced as well but I might play one of the NOT Dern props depending on prices.
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Yeah she has great lateral footwork, shows it off in the Elmose fight. I see this fight as a near pick em.
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Hermansson as a striker is pretty ineffective. Way too much wasted movement. I think leites will be ok if he just uses his kicks from range. Leites wont mind going to the ground if that happens. I dont really like hermansson, he is just pretty ineffective as a striker and losing twice in brazil isnt a good look. Tavares is a level above hermansson. I just don't see much in hermansson to say hes a lock here
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Even though I have a bet on Hermansson I largely agree with your points and that's why I only have 1u on him. There's a whole lot of nothing going on in Hermanssons striking and he will probably not want to wrestle here. However, I think his speed will be enough if he doesn't let Leites leg kick his way to a decision in Brazil which I also think is possible.
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Because of his excessive movement, he telegraphs pretty much everything and isnt a good counter striker. His kicks are particularly easy to see coming. When he puts pressure on with that excessive movement its real easy to offset him. He also moves back in straight lines a bit too much which got him starched vs Santos. Leites is just going to be kicking and might even be able to run through hermansson for takedowns. just committing to running through hermansson is a good strategy.
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I think Dern is going to semi surprise a bunch of people and show much better wrestling in her 2nd UFC fight and get an easy sub.
It's a quick turnaround and I don't think she wants to look foolish in Brazil. If she didn't feel she had a big advantage, I assume she wouldn't have taken the fight.
Could be one of those Brazilian squash matches, or another terrible performance. Either way, I wanna hear how much thicker her accent gets now that she's fighting in Brazil.
It's a quick turnaround and I don't think she wants to look foolish in Brazil. If she didn't feel she had a big advantage, I assume she wouldn't have taken the fight.
Could be one of those Brazilian squash matches, or another terrible performance. Either way, I wanna hear how much thicker her accent gets now that she's fighting in Brazil.
