UFC FOX 28 - Stephens vs Emmett - Orlando

[t6p]

I may use the term wrong, brawler, what I meant is, I´ve just noticed in a decent number of her fights, that she tends to go in swinging and trading alot of blows, not very technical, but she has a high volume so it usually pays off, even if she gets tagged alot, also she hits harder than most of her opponents which has made for some nice LB action on her earlier. But in this case vs Andrande, I think she´ll get hit really hard and possibly knocked down, and Andrade has pretty good GnP, better than anyone she´s faced so far. And even if that doesn´t happen, we´ve seen time an time again Andrade throw girls around, even Gadelha in their last fight. And Torres won´t get up again that round. It´s a shame as if she just tried to get up more, or was more dangerous rather than just being defensive on the ground, she´d be at a high elite level. But in this fight I really feel it´s the elite (possibly the best in the division) against someone who´s not quite there yet. And I´m not worried at all about Torres in regards to her KO power, or submissions..again it´d be an insanely lucky submission if so. I´ll take Andrade as long as its 1.25+. i got her at 1.36, not too much value, but decent enough I feel.

Looking at the last fights again, I see your point about her gastank (Andrade) being fine, for a 3 rounder. I still worry if she´ll get in a TS again though if it´d be 5 rounder, but as long as its versus anyone but someone as technical and fast as JJ, she should win.

Yea, I agree. I think Andrade dominating this fight is the most likely scenaio. It's just not my style to pay that kind of juice and it's not like Andrade has historically been super reliable. Giving up her back to Pennington, getting triangled by Renau and showing no ability to make adjustments against JJ come to mind, albeit two of those three fights were at 135 and she's a whole different beast at 115.

 

[SeverianB]

Yeah, one thing that I noticed about Torres in her last fight is that she isn't that great on the bottom. Waterson held her down in the second round without much problem and if she ends up on her back vs Andrade she will be in trouble.

Even worse, Waterson was sick and had hugely compromised cardio. Tecia is quite weak on the ground, Rogan was right to be harsh on her during the fight.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Yeah, one thing that I noticed about Torres in her last fight is that she isn't that great on the bottom. Waterson held her down in the second round without much problem and if she ends up on her back vs Andrade she will be in trouble.

Exactly. She´s very passive on her back, she´s content with being defensive and letting the clock tick. She´s done that in multiple of her fights. And Andrade will take her down, and could roll to an easy decision 30-27. I just do not see the win methods from Torress, so thats why I´m content with anything at 1.25+ ML for Andrade. My biggest concern would be Andrade´s coach, whos the same who didn´t throw in the towel in that priscila cachoeira fight. And thats not a good sign of a good coach, but not much coaching should be done here. Let Andrade be a bulldog, vs another Bulldog in Torres, and that should be that, late stoppage or most likely a decision for Andrade.

 

[northsofia]

His cardio and chin aren't going to get any better.
Sterling isn't a good finisher, but Kelleher is

Kelleher finished Stasiak only because he succeeded to broke his nose in the beginning of the second round and Stasiak was barely breathing through it. And again, after he broked his nose Kelleher needed more than one whole round to finish the job.

 

[Jamah]

Kelleher finished Stasiak only because he succeeded to broke his nose in the beginning of the second round and Stasiak was barely breathing through it. And again, after he broked his nose Kelleher needed more than one whole round to finish the job.

He was close to finish him with a guillotine choke in r2. I know that he isn't a power puncher, but his guillotines are tight.

 

[Stunna77]

On board with the over in Barao/Kelleher at -125. Both good grapplers with solid chins.

Anyone else think Griffin +300 is nutty? Perry probably bit more durable, but seems like a type of fight where its going to be who lands the first big shot or who is the most willing to mix things up. Can Griffin wrestle at all?

Perry became more tentative once Jouban and Ponz tagged him, could be a factor if Griffin gets going early.

 

[t6p]

Anyone else think Griffin +300 is nutty? Perry probably bit more durable, but seems like a type of fight where its going to be who lands the first big shot or who is the most willing to mix things up. Can Griffin wrestle at all?

If he can he hasn't shown it in the UFC. His only takedown attempt was a desperation shot on Zaleski when he was nearly out on his feet in the first round and he got mauled by Covington. Still, I agree the line is way wide and Griffin is worth a shot at this price.

 

[piglord]

i know i'm not the only one waiting for that kelleher r3 prop.

 

[turbozed]

On board with the over in Barao/Kelleher at -125. Both good grapplers with solid chins.

Anyone else think Griffin +300 is nutty? Perry probably bit more durable, but seems like a type of fight where its going to be who lands the first big shot or who is the most willing to mix things up. Can Griffin wrestle at all?

Perry became more tentative once Jouban and Ponz tagged him, could be a factor if Griffin gets going early.

I'm with you on Griffin here. Perry as a fan favorite is going to be overpriced. While Perry has his moments where you can see talent and potential, he still hasn't fully transitioned out of brawler mode. -360 against a dangerous opponent isn't indicative of his implied odds of winning at all. Huge popularity tax there. Probably 100 pts is pure surcharge.

 

[edole]

I think Griffin vs Perry is honestly close to a coin flip.

Both guys are below average grapplers, although I was impressed with Max's sprawl in the Dos Santos fight.

Both guys throw and land with power and both guys can get rocked.

Rock em sock em robots.

Perry should be favored, but that line is outrageous.

 

[northsofia]

He was close to finish him with a guillotine choke in r2. I know that he isn't a power puncher, but his guillotines are tight.

And do you think that he can submit Barao? Sterling spent the whole second round on Barao`s back and he didnt succeed to submit him. But maybe if Barao gasses badly he can catch him.

 

[Card]

Pushed really hard this camp, pushed my conditioning, dog fight, Faber is a slave driver, now I will reap the rewards, he pushed me to my maximum, my breaking point, first round went well, second didn't, I will rebound, I always scout my opponents, every single exchange and scramble I will win them, no matter how deep I have to dig

 

[Card]

Train with the best in the world (Team Oyama), weight is good, last fight was frustrating he didn't make weight, they could have told me earlier, let me put on weight, I stay ready, back in the gym on Monday, I like being active, I've cornered Soto/Esparza in he UFC before, I called out Matt Schnell or Eric Shelton because they were coming off a win, I can't call out top 5 guys, Shelton is quick, well rounded, good ground game, active off his back, we're both exciting, FOTN, back to gym after, alot of team fights coming up, going back to help, they help me, I help them

 

[Card]

Second co-main event, Rocky said I'm the strongest she's ever felt me, I believe her, Jessica is a brawler, I'm more technical, she has strengths everywhere, I'm ready, high altitude and Raquel as a training partner every day, flight was delayed it threw me off, I'm a regiment scheduled person, gotta roll with the punches, Colorado coaches have elevated me, I'm ready for her to come fast and hard, try to take me down, I'm ready

 

[Card]

Physically and mentally, this is the best I've ever been, I've fought Raquel twice, so this is fun, best shape of my life, will get another title shot in 1 year, I'm training for Rose, focus on Torres first, I will be chasing her for the duration of the fight

 

[Card]

I'm been at TAM since they opened the gym, I know where I stack up, I will get the title soon, I was the only fighter that said yes to the Lamas fight, I thank all the guys that turned it down, 5 week notice, I didn't think i was going to fight until April/May, I said I'll find a way to win, Stephens's a legend, a pioneer, I have to fight my fight, toughest fight of my career, fighting myself, I see tendencies, he can't correct those in 5 weeks, ready for 25 min war

 

[Card]

11 years since I've fought at home, I train year round, I found out about this card in Dec, so it's perfect I'm on it, last year been travelling around the world to improve, there's no one in the UFC with my skill set, 25 years, I'm a special breed, my emotions beat me, you need a shotgun to take me out, nothing will break me, being on this card was so important, then they said Alan, and I forwarded the email to Eddie and said no, Alan's back was against the wall, he accepted the fight, it's unfortunate, first time you'll see 10th planet fighters fighting, winner buys beers, so amazing to fight here, the whole place will go nuts, give me goosebumps

 

[Card]

I have heart, mind, I out work everyone, my punch count has doubled, I beg for opportunities like this, TAM know me, my hunger is deep, it's a good match up for me, will throw down, I train all areas, age 31, I'm in my prime, i have never quit, I am here to improve, he'll want to stand until he gets hit, then he'll go to wrestling, we have answers for that, match up well, we will be dominant, put on a show, this is what we do, I've grown up in the Octagon, I love fighting, let's do this, all eyes are on me

 

[Card]

Hometown, I feel love, make sure none of this gets to me, take deep breaths for cardio, stay relaxed, timing, cardio, I'm ready, I need to be patient, don't force the fight, I didn't have cardio my last fight, will sleep in my own bed, a comfortable fighter is a dangerous fighter

 

[Card]

Up a weight class, get to eat more, first full camp in over a year, I told the UFC I was looking for a fight, ankle and shoulder healed up, They said not till April, I said I could do 205 as well, they called up the next day, I'm allowed to eat much more, I love lifting weights, hope I can do 4-5 fights this year again, he has 150 kickboxing fights, will be a bonus fight, I want to be known like Cowboy, I have the MMA experience, I want a finish so bad, it's been a long time