This is basically my betting analysis, although I'm starting to have doubts about my Stasiak play. The Chinese Alpha Males have been looking imrpessive.Also like Stasiak took him at -115, would have took Fabinski but I missed the boat on that 1. Why do folks feel Grant has no power? Didnt he drop Marlon Vera? Same with Ledet, dont get it. Also dont see why folks feel Anderson is going to lay on Texeira for 3 rounds, Texeira is great at getting up to his feet and there is a reason Anderson hits over 5 takedowns per fight. Every second those 2 stand n front of each other Andersons livelihood is in serious danger. Texeira on top of him could turn out very bad as well. Anderson has to get takedown at the start of each round and have 14:15 control time lol.
fight finder'ed you should watch some tape Nas is a very promising prospect GSP's training partner.. Diak may win but would never lay the juice on himI might just tail you on Taha. Europe FN cards + underdogs? Check.
Yeh I remember DIakase to be slightly dumb but I fight finder'ed his opponent and I don't think he's any good. Diakase should get through this.
Taha is my least confident pick on this card by far. Guys on MMA Vivisection have seemed pretty lazy lately, but I just listened what they had to say. Ruebusch thought that Nad’s game is very well put together and that’s enough to beat Taha. Simon argued that Taha has enough speed, athletism and raw talent to expose Nad, who has fought pretty mediocre competition talent-wise.
First rule of listening Vivi: Never ever let their picks influence your ml-bets!MMA Vivisection (at least the Ruebusch/Simon version) is weird, because it combines some of the best technical analysis with by far the worst actual predictions compared to any similar broadcast. Plus, Zane Simon in particular talks about people in a way that would definitely have ended up with him KOed in the parking lot of a Superbrawl show by Krazy Horse or Brad Kohler in a different era.
That's because the idiots miss the forest for the trees.MMA Vivisection (at least the Ruebusch/Simon version) is weird, because it combines some of the best technical analysis with by far the worst actual predictions compared to any similar broadcast.
fight finder'ed you should watch some tape Nas is a very promising prospect GSP's training partner.. Diak may win but would never lay the juice on him
Taha is my least confident pick on this card by far. Guys on MMA Vivisection have seemed pretty lazy lately, but I just listened what they had to say. Ruebusch thought that Nad’s game is very well put together and that’s enough to beat Taha. Simon argued that Taha has enough speed, athletism and raw talent to expose Nad, who has fought pretty mediocre competition talent-wise.
MMA Vivisection (at least the Ruebusch/Simon version) is weird, because it combines some of the best technical analysis with by far the worst actual predictions compared to any similar broadcast. Plus, Zane Simon in particular talks about people in a way that would definitely have ended up with him KOed in the parking lot of a Superbrawl show by Krazy Horse or Brad Kohler in a different era.
Unless a prospect has actual hype/deliverables behind them, don't make them a big favorite against a guy with UFC wins IMO. Kimball's a fatass, but regional HW cancrushers aren't exactly a winning phenomenon in the past. Kimball's not as terrible as a wikicap makes him look. No real dishonor in losing to Reyes, and the Lima KO1 loss was a bit fluky with the slip. Reminds me of Prachnio being a -300 against Alvey since he'd... looked bad against actual UFC competition or something?They have a bad habit of assuming every prospect is terrible because he hasn't beaten anybody good yet. Like they couldn't understand why Azaitar is a fave over 39 y/o Vitor Miranda or why Stosic is a fave over fatass Jeremy Kimball.
When did Meek get to -105?Quick writeup for every fight
Pingyuan Liu vs Damian Stasiak
There's some chance that Liu has terrible grappling defense and Stasiak submits him like he did Grant and Pejic, but outside of that I don't like Stasiak's game. He's a bad striker and not a great wrestler, and if he's stuck in a standup battle he is going to lose against Liu who has better hands and more KO power.
Prediction: Liu -125
Darko Stosic vs Jeremy Kimball
Stosic has serious holes in his striking defense and there's some chance Kimball has better standup. He seems to prefer to strike, and if he does in this face he can easily get KO'd.
But he does have a judo background and is physically much stronger. If he doesn't want to stand up anymore, he shouldn't have much trouble taking Kimball down.
This fight is hard to bet, but I would take Kimball KO/ITD or Darko decision if anything
Prediction: Stosic -200
Manny Bermudez vs Davey Grant
Bermudez loves to submit, Grant loves to get submitted. Bermudez has a bad chin, Grant has no power. This is a matchup made in easy mode heaven for Bermudez. Don't trust him enough to lay juice, so I'm passing on this fight.
Prediction: Bermudez -300
Justin Ledet vs Aleksandar Rakic
Ledet is a great boxer with a decent grappling offense, but Rakic is a very interesting prospect. Big, strong, athletic, seems reasonably high IQ. A bit one dimensional as a kickboxer, but he has been sparring with JDS and if Zu can tag Ledet in standup so can Rakic. Close fight but my brain just likes Rakic more
Prediction: Rakic -150
Nad Narimani vs Khalid Taha
Narimani has a bad chin + striking defense while Taha has great hands. Taha has bad grappling defense while Nad has solid wrestling and submission game. This could go either way, and it's probably correct to have Nad favored. But I'm feeling Taha here-- he can easily KO
Prediction: Nad -125
Emil Meek vs Bartosz Fabinski
I really don't think Meek is good. He was KO'd pre-UFC by a submission specialist, he is hittable, he is easy to take down, and his offense entails wildly brawling and chasing bad guillotine attempts.
Don't have the best read on Fabinski. Can't find tape but his split win over Tseiko and unanimous loss for Wendres Carlos da Silva implies that he has holes in his game when he can't take his opponent down and hold him there. So he's probably not great, and he is definitely less likely to finish. Coinflippy fight
Prediction: Meek -105
Damir Hadzovic vs Nick Hein
What is Hein even good for? He has short arms, can't finish, and in spite of all of his judo medals his grappling offense has been very limited in UFC. He also seems to be in decline-- his last two decision wins vs Bang and Kasuya could have been more dominant, and he didn't look good at all vs Ramos even before they hit the mat.
Hadzovic isn't a world beater himself, but he has a 4" reach advantage, KO power, is a bit younger. Definitely more likely to finish, and the fact he was hanging in striking vs Taisumov means he can strike with Hein.
Hein probably lands at least a takedown or two, but he isn't a smothering grappler like Patrick or Held so we can finally see Damir at his best, whatever that is. Think the wrong guy is slightly favored here:
Prediction: Hadz -125
When did Meek get to -105?
I think those numbers are his estimations on what the line should be. Should rather be using %'s, thought.When did Meek get to -105?
Unless a prospect has actual hype/deliverables behind them, don't make them a big favorite against a guy with UFC wins IMO. Kimball's a fatass, but regional HW cancrushers aren't exactly a winning phenomenon in the past. Kimball's not as terrible as a wikicap makes him look. No real dishonor in losing to Reyes, and the Lima KO1 loss was a bit fluky with the slip. Reminds me of Prachnio being a -300 against Alvey since he'd... looked bad against actual UFC competition or something?
I think those numbers are his estimations on what the line should be. Should rather be using %'s, thought.