UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

sanders/yahya is a true 50/50 imo, it's hard to side with either but i see sanders sprawl and brawl as slightly more likely.
 
My favorite underdog bet I'm going big on is Kalindra Faria at +150 over Joanne Calderwood. Also big on Angela Hill over Cortney Casey at -125. And Rani Yahya at -120 over Luke Sanders. Plus James Vick at -160 over Justin Gaethje in the main event before the price improved.
 
Ok I played this parlay :
Drew Dober
Eryk Anders
Warley Alves
Angela Hill
Deveison Figuerido
150 to win 693
 
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I don't know guys why are you so sure about Hill? I think Casey will bully Hill around. Hill can only beat strikers. She is way smaller and weaker than Casey and that means a much in WMMA fight. Seriously I don't see how Hill can win this. Se fought Moroz who is excellent match up for her. I see huge value in Casey
Split dec losses to Herrig and Waterson > everything Hill has ever done
 
Danis_champ said:
I don't know guys why are you so sure about Hill? I think Casey will bully Hill around. Hill can only beat strikers. She is way smaller and weaker than Casey and that means a much in WMMA fight. Seriously I don't see how Hill can win this. Se fought Moroz who is excellent match up for her. I see huge value in Casey
Split dec losses to Herrig and Waterson > everything Hill has ever done
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I actually don't trust Hill at all but Casey has a horrible fight IQ. That fight is just a hard pass for me though. I wouldn't trust Casey as a slight dog
 
I'm shocked people are still high on Sanders and put money on him. He has horrible fight IQ and Yahya is the highest caliber opponent he has ever fought. Dude almost lost to fucking Pat williams and his face was busted up. Sanders is big fade material.
 
Danis_champ said:
Casey should have won the Waterson fight. If you guys bet on Hill then you admit that Hill is better striker than Waterson
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I think Hill pointfights better yes. The fact that Casey lost two splits in a row that she arguably could've won shows that she's not always doing the right things to win. I see Hill winning a decision here. I just don't trust her much either.

Danis_champ said:
I'm shocked people are still high on Sanders and put money on him. He has horrible fight IQ and Yahya is the highest caliber opponent he has ever fought. Dude almost lost to fucking Pat williams and his face was busted up. Sanders is big fade material.
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The Williams fight wasn't impressive. But even though Williams isn't a great fighter he's more dangerous on the feet than Yahya is. It really comes down to Luke having good enough wrestling defense here, which I think he has. It's not ultra confidence considering he's apparently prone to mistakes, I just think it's a good matchup for him.
 
Danis_champ said:
I don't know guys why are you so sure about Hill? I think Casey will bully Hill around. Hill can only beat strikers. She is way smaller and weaker than Casey and that means a much in WMMA fight. Seriously I don't see how Hill can win this. Se fought Moroz who is excellent match up for her. I see huge value in Casey
Split dec losses to Herrig and Waterson > everything Hill has ever done
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You must be thrilled with the oddsmakers mistake then if that's how you see it. How many units do you have on Casey? At least 5 or 10, right?
 
I'm actually getting kinda confident on Iuri pulling out a win here. Sandhagen has great, tricky standup. But Iuri kinda likes that, and I know he's getting older but you have to consider Iuri has never been knocked out in his 45-fight career.

Sandhagen started to gas pretty hard in the Arnett fight and that's super concerning to me. Arnett is a fighter he should have NO business losing to, and if it wasn't for a well-placed body shot he probably would've lost that fight. Arnett easily took his back and was gaining a heavy striking advantage. I'm pretty sure this is Sandhagen's BW debut too? The extra weight cut won't help that.

I can absolutely see this going like the Iuri-Kelleher fight, but imo there's more value on Iuri here than there seemed initially
 
JimGunn said:
You must be thrilled with the oddsmakers mistake then if that's how you see it. How many units do you have on Casey? At least 5 or 10, right?
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Sry I don't count my money on units.

I'll make 2x bigger bet on her than I usually bet for sure. Hill is still the same fighter she was before she was cut. She just have been lucky with good match ups
 
Danis_champ said:
Casey should have won the Waterson fight. If you guys bet on Hill then you admit that Hill is better striker than Waterson
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Casey is too dumb to win fights against these girls. Hill can win the fight striking and mix in some takedowns. Casey once again will sit on her back and lose the round. I don't see how you can be confident in someone with such a low fight IQ. Hill is like Einstein compared to Casey. All this should have /would have / got robbed etc - its bs, she's just too thick to fight a smart fight.
 
Jon Tuck is a bum, if you can't beat Damien Brown then you're a bum. Jon Tuck is a better athlete and all round fighter than Brown but still found a way to lose. Jon Tuck is so deluded that he even thought he won that fight. I bet on Tuck in that fight and I thought he lost, you can't stare at someone for 10 minutes and win rounds.

Tuck has suspect cardio, no urgency, no heart and bad fight IQ. He's got a 10-5 record but look at who he's beat, bottom of the barrel UFC comp. He beat bums that never belonged and washed up fighters.

Dober is entering his prime and he's going to destroy Tuck. And Dober is the hometown guy so I ain't losing no split
 
I really love Sanders as a dog. Yahya is a one trick pony, Sanders is now more experienced after that Iuri loss and should take the safe route.

I'm even kinda confident.
 
Caicara said:
I really love Sanders as a dog. Yahya is a one trick pony, Sanders is now more experienced after that Iuri loss and should take the safe route.

I'm even kinda confident.
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Did you know that he got dumped by his WWE girlfriend Becky Lynch, since then he has lost his soul and motivation for the fight game

Went back to train at Nashville MMA to train with bums for this fight, no longer at Blackhouse or MMA Lab

And before that he nearly lost to a 40 year old Patrick Williams.

Cmon, you know Becky Lynch had obviously gotten Luke on some of those WWE designer steroids for the Alcantara fight, thats why he looked so good that one time. But since then what's he shown? nothing but disappointment
 
Gugabe said:
Assuming you're based out of UK, which I'm fairly sure you are for some reason I can't remember, you can probably get a better price on Gaethje if you wait for 365 to open their KO/Dec line. They've been putting out some absolutely insane ones lately. Anthony Smith KO/Dec was +110, Thompson KO/Dec was +130, Dillashaw KO/Dec was +140, Poirier KO/Dec was +120
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good insight, i also hit that poirier ko/dec and that's a good idea for gaethje as well.
 
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