UFN 158 on ESPN+ 16 Cowboy vs Gaethje

Sanchez is a better fighter than MV but as everyone knows has a major conditioning issue. MV is a tough Mf'er and reasonable grappler. Omari fight was a war, took some clean shots to the dome by style bender. I can see this fight playing out 1 of 3 ways:
  1. Sanchez pieces up and wall n' stalls MV to a UD
  2. Sanchez pieces up MV in round 1, does modestly well in round 2 but gasses hard and gets finished in round 3
  3. A portrait of #2 happens but the final bell rings and the score MV a 10-8 3rd resulting in a draw ala a repeat of the Omari fight for MV
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Sanchez is a better fighter than MV but as everyone knows has a major conditioning issue. MV is a tough Mf'er and reasonable grappler. Omari fight was a war, took some clean shots to the dome by style bender. I can see this fight playing out 1 of 3 ways:
  1. Sanchez pieces up and wall n' stalls MV to a UD
  2. Sanchez pieces up MV in round 1, does modestly well in round 2 but gasses hard and gets finished in round 3
  3. A portrait of #2 happens but the final bell rings and the score MV a 10-8 3rd resulting in a draw ala a repeat of the Omari fight for MV
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Can't remember the last time I prebet a draw, but I've done so here. $20 for $1500
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Sanchez is a better fighter than MV but as everyone knows has a major conditioning issue. MV is a tough Mf'er and reasonable grappler. Omari fight was a war, took some clean shots to the dome by style bender. I can see this fight playing out 1 of 3 ways:
  1. Sanchez pieces up and wall n' stalls MV to a UD
  2. Sanchez pieces up MV in round 1, does modestly well in round 2 but gasses hard and gets finished in round 3
  3. A portrait of #2 happens but the final bell rings and the score MV a 10-8 3rd resulting in a draw ala a repeat of the Omari fight for MV
Click to expand...

Think you're underrating the possibility that Vettori has surpassed Sanchez at this stage. I mean he lost a split decision to Adesanya + dominated Mutante and is only 25 + still improving. Sanchez just barely squeaked past Marc Andre Barriault and is 31 and pretty much is what he is. 30-27 decision for Vettori is a firm possibility, I think -250 or so is an accurate line for him.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Think you're underrating the possibility that Vettori has surpassed Sanchez at this stage. I mean he lost a split decision to Adesanya + dominated Mutante and is only 25 + still improving. Sanchez just barely squeaked past Marc Andre Barriault and is 31 and pretty much is what he is. 30-27 decision for Vettori is a firm possibility, I think -250 or so is an accurate line for him.
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Whoever scored the Adesanya fight for Vettori needs to get their head checked
 
Sadistics said:
Whoever scored the Adesanya fight for Vettori needs to get their head checked
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This. Also, Adesanya has improved drastically in every fight since then. MMA math does not compute. That said, on Vettori by decision as well.
 
Sadistics said:
Whoever scored the Adesanya fight for Vettori needs to get their head checked
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Israel clearly won rounds 1 + 2, but they weren't dominant and Vettori won round 3 by a clearer margin than either of Israel's first two rounds.

It should have been a clear 29-28 Adesanya, but compared to Brunson + Tavares it was a relatively close call for Israel that makes me hesitant to bet against Vettori at this stage.
 
TrueAscension said:
I legit cap Gaethje at -300+ here I have no idea how Cerrone wins this fight.
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I don't think the line is terribly far off. Cerrone has alot of experience and a tool box to back it up. I like his striking better at least from a technical stand point, his straight combinations and kicks are crisp and often devastating. His decent height and reach advantages won't hurt if he can maintain his range.

Big if on the range control as Gaethje does come on strong. One thing I think may hurt JG is how he loves to force a clinch with a wrestling collar tie while throwing shots with his free hand. Cowboy is no slouch in the clinch and could counter with his own neck tie and some massive knees on the shorter less technical fighter.

Back and forth on this one personally. I've got 2.5u on Justin. I think he will crowd Cowboys footwork and out volume him early, either getting a finish or doing enough damage to keep Cerrone from answering back the longer the fight goes.
 
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Pulling out the tin foil hat here. Anyone else think Cerrone blew his nose on purpose, either just to end the bout or as a way to chance a sneaky DQ win over Tony after that late shot after r2?
Just speculation, either way the Ranch Hand Fighting Man is no easy night
 
Sono07 said:
Pulling out the tin foil hat here. Anyone else think Cerrone blew his nose on purpose, either just to end the bout or as a way to chance a sneaky DQ win over Tony after that late shot after r2?
Just speculation, either way the Ranch Hand Fighting Man is no easy night
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I think he was looking for a way out and he found it. That happens to pretty much everyone against tony tho so..
 
Ok so i will cash out of my hughes bets and play Katona and Tybura
 


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ApplesVild said:
Anyone think the Hall/ACJ is off? I know Hall isn't great but neither is Shoeface and if if doesn't end up on the mat quickly Hall probably takes him out
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I'll probably watch round 1 to see how gassed Shoeface is looking. If Hall is still there after r1 and the odds blow right out I may take a punt
 
Cockadoodle said:
I'll probably watch round 1 to see how gassed Shoeface is looking. If Hall is still there after r1 and the odds blow right out I may take a punt
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Probably the best call to be fair, but the second Hall stuffs a takedown that line on him with drop
 
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