UFC 224 - Nunes vs Pennington - Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

[Gugabe]

Free money:

Sean Strickland
Junior Albini
John Lineker

Albini? Dude's entire reputation lasts on one good night against Johnson, and it's not like we haven't had HWs do that before where they look great one time, but never quite click again. I went hard on Arlovski against him since I just don't see... much in the way of much with him.

 

[mkess101]

Initially I thought I'd have a ton of pre fight action tonight, but turns out that (aside from a huge Machida freeroll and Dern) I really don't. Some plays I am making though:

Nunes sub (small) at +425. She's a beast on the mat (when fresh) and while Rocky isn't bad there either, she'll be overwhelmed there early if she's put on her back. The line (on 5d anyway) is down to +300, so value is gone imo. But if gets back close to +400 I think it's worth a play.

Gastelum dec (small) +500 (line now up to +530 actually on 5d). I think Kelvin is gonna learn from his mistakes with Weidman and try to play pop a shot from the outside here. The question is whether his footwork and movement can keep him out of grappling exchanges for 15 minutes. I'm not sure it can, but at these odds I'll take a small shot at it.

Dern ML (big) at -180. The fact that Dern has flat out said she doesn't care about training and came in 7 lbs over is a concern. I still like her to win and think I have value here (it may only take one TD for her to secure mount or get Cooper's back, this is a grappling mismatch) but the line has jumped up and down quite a bit and is now -235. Probably a pass at this point? If Dern got back under -200 she's probably still worth a play (esp given the stats on fighter's missing weight and still winning). On the flipside, if tons of Dern $ comes in late and Cooper gets to +300 (or close) she's worth a shot. If I see that happen I'll for sure buy out of some of my action on Dern.

Lineker/Kelleher FDNGD at +165 (medium). I think the fact Lineker has gone to 3 straight decisions has skewed this line. He's never been shy about getting in big exchanges, and would prefer to fight in a phone booth if he could. Kelleher is a guy who will oblige and press forward. Both guys have great chins, but I think there's value in that one of them (probably Lineker) really hurts the other and finishes.

Machida (big freeroll). Books messed up with this line early on. I maxed Machida -150, -160, -175, and -185. Took Vitor +188, +205, +225 (plus tiny plays on Vitor rd 1 +550 and Vitor dec +700) so now have a big freeroll on Lyoto. I think he's WAY less "done" than Vitor. He showed good movement and poise vs Anders (who was admittedly gunshy in that fight). Vitor I think has one round worth of steam. I think he tries to blitz Lyoto and either does it or gets countered and finished or gasses himself out and is picked apart for the next 10 minutes. I did also make a small play on u1.0 at +223.

Roberson/Mutante is a pass pre fight for me other than a tiny stab at Mutante dec +295 purely on the Brazil effect.

Albini rds 2 (+575) and 3 (+1150) tiny as I think old man Oleinik has about 7 minutes worth of cardio, tops.

Hein dec (small) at +174. I just trust his gas tank more than Ramos's. This could be the best LB fight on the card though possibly. Hoping Ramos comes out strong but uses a lot of energy. He slowed down a lot in rd 2 vs Gruetz before getting the finish early in rd 3 in that fight. He also slowed a lot vs Rickels in his only Bellator fight.

Alves ML medium at -200. Didn't watch enough tape to go bigger, but Alves just looks way better than Sultan from the tape I did watch.

Hermannson ML small at -115. Leites just doesn't look like the same guy, and even in Brazil doesn't throw enough volume to win a striking decision. I think USADA has ruined his grappling chances too.

Passing on Emeev/Mina. Just didn't have time to watch tape.

I think Perez probably stops Bochnovic but passing there too. Bochnovic is a Wisconsin guy like me so don't want to bet against him, esp since I didn't watch any tape for this one and may or may not be home in time to watch it.






Strickland (small) at +115 (now +100). I think he can outwork Zeleski in what should be a very close fight. Strickland seems like a guy who's underrated a lot. Keeping it small because...Brazil.

 

[P4p Islam]

I went hard on Perez beating Bochnovic.


I watched a lot of tape on both, and Bochnovic is a straight up bum.

 

[piglord]

I went hard on Perez beating Bochnovic.


I watched a lot of tape on both, and Bochnovic is a straight up bum.

yeah one of my most confident plays

 

[Oblivian]

Hey @Oblivian and @iGnP , wondering what your leans are for tonight.

It's a pretty shitty event honestly. Cooper, Alves, Emeev, Lineker, Jacare.

 

[kushn4pushin]

I’m not too high on the card, I’m still looking for an angle or some spots to hit this card but I think I will look to play as I go rather than place too many prebets. I feel like I gotta get a feel of how it’s gonna go. The last time they were in Brazil, the Brazilians went 9 for 11 where Tim Means got robbed and Machida won that close decision.

I had a few 8 man parlays that included both of the aforementioned, but after seeing the way Joseph Morales lose and looking all shook,I just got this weird feeling to redo the entire parlay again, removing non-Brazilians which was Tim Means over Sergio Moraes and it ended up hitting 7 for 7 for a few dozen racks. And that card ended with the lucky Machida decision over Anders, Machida being my 7th leg.

I hate to use this factor but fighting in Brazil really is a factor.

Side story — I’ve been traveling to Vegas these past couple months and there’s a few specific books that are dumb enough to let me parlay the ML with the over/unders and that weekend I I was able to do a 2-man parlay on Machida (+240) and his o2.5 (+175) together which came up to +900. It also gave me the flexibility to cash out even if Machida were to finish after 2.5 rounds. In comparison, 5dimes only paid Machida +525 for him to win by 5 round decision. It’s pretty crazy that they allow this and I’m taking advantage as much as I can when I see a good spot to take a trip to vegas.

I’ll give you another example for this card. I don’t give a shit about the fight, but hypothetically speaking, if you were to parlay Cooper (+225) and o2.5 (+100), you’d get +557. If you bet Cooper by decision on 5dimes, you only get +475, and the difference is that if Cooper finishes in the last 2.5 minutes, you still covered that +557 and you lose your bet on 5dimes.

There was a time where I bet Alex Garcia and o1.5 to achieve +450, and on the other hand 5dimes offered only +425 for his 3 round decision, and I cashed my +450 Vegas action because he finished at like 2:40 seconds into the second round.

I’m about to milk this cow for as long as I can til they realize it. If anyone wants to meet me out there lmk.

What casino is this? I went to William hill and some mgm casinos and on the odds sheet it explicitly says you cannot parlay rounds.

 

[edole]

Jacare can't match the energy/output of Gastelum over 3 rounds .

 

[edole]

Albini? Dude's entire reputation lasts on one good night against Johnson, and it's not like we haven't had HWs do that before where they look great one time, but never quite click again. I went hard on Arlovski against him since I just don't see... much in the way of much with him.

Aleksei is too battle worn imo. Not very athletic or explosive at this point in his career - Albini keeps it standing and boxes him up imo

 

[zeckdo]

Yeah. Betfair liquidity's fairly inconsistent with MMA. You'll see a Mil traded on something like Hayes-Bellew 2, but there's like 13k currently traded on Nunes-Pennington (Somebody take my Pennington @ 6.8 lay so I can move on with my life and hedge!

how can you see how much money is laid on lines?

 

[MT6ix]

Yeah a lot of questions surrounding Roberson

He seems to have somewhat of ground game, not a complete novice like other strikers that come into MMA. Roberson trains in the Jersey area and does a lot of training with Corey Anderson, so you know he's improving that TDD

Roberson's high level kickboxing experience and natural athleticism is what he has going for him, everything else is end of up in the air.

This is a tough debut though and I expect some questions to be answered unless Roberson ices him early.

Cezar on the decline thats for sure. His chin sucks and so does his cardio. Maybe Roberson gets wrestled early but then comes back later in the fight.

Money has been coming in on Ferreira over the past couple of days. Tough fight to call.

Watching tape on Ferreira he knows his chin isn't good and as a result he isn't willing to get into a firefight and put his chin to the test, he is just looking to score points and win a decision or get the fight to the ground. He does a lot of in and out and circling out and staying out of trading range.

Karl Roberson is very athletic like you mentioned and better striker than Ferreria and decent TDD, knows to widen his base and work underhooks. I wouldn't be surprised to see Roberson blast Ferreira against the cage or in the clinch with knees or elbows. I could also see Ferreira grinding out a decision with TD attempts. I'm sure he isn't going to willingly trade with Roberson. Ferreira looked to be the bigger man at the weighins too.

If I thought Ferreira would be willing to trade with Roberson, I would be all over Roberson at his current price but I don't think he does. Pass for me.

 

[sdy]

Oleynik is as light as 106 kg, he spent a lot of time on his cardio training. It could be primarly a striking match.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Hein dec (small) at +174. I just trust his gas tank more than Ramos's. This could be the best LB fight on the card though possibly. Hoping Ramos comes out strong but uses a lot of energy. He slowed down a lot in rd 2 vs Gruetz before getting the finish early in rd 3 in that fight. He also slowed a lot vs Rickels in his only Bellator fight.

100% and Strickland could be a good live bet as well. I'm on Ramos and Zaleski but if I see an good opening to buy out or switch sides I'm taking it. Good insight all around in your post.

 

[piglord]

strickland isn't the most exciting motherfucker but he's fundamentally sound and has a crisp jab.

zaleski is exactly the type of guy who i like to back as an underdog to fight his ass off for your money and turn it into a scrap, but not as a fav. he likes to trade and leaves a lot of openings defensively.

i also think strickland is the superior wrestler, i wouldn't be surprised if he shoots late takedowns to steal rounds. if strickland can keep his composure with this rabid dog coming at him and an arena of brazilian fans screaming for his head, i think he should win this on the scorecards.

 

[TITS]

Is there any point betting on Junior Albini? I'm thinking about adding him to a parlay to win, but worried old man Oleinik might choke him out. I'd hate to have a good parlay ruined by the Diaper God.

 

[raketmannen]

100% and Strickland could be a good live bet as well. I'm on Ramos and Zaleski but if I see an good opening to buy out or switch sides I'm taking it. Good insight all around in your post.

Same here I'm on Ramos pre and just waiting for Zaleski at + money on bet365, but will be ready to jump ship if I get better odds on Hein/Strickland depending on how the first round plays out

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I keep reiterating this, but I’m just not a fan of betting this card. I’m not doing any parlays on this one nor do I have any confident picks.

I’m kinda confused on the way Emeev/Mina line is. Emeev’s not gonna finish this fight and the over should really be set at o2.5 in correlation to his -200 ML. I also find value in Not Emeev ITD. I also played Mina +3.5 because you cannot feel confident judges will give Emeev 30-27s. Besides the fact, Mina is the one that’s gonna be pushing for a finish.

For the sake of breakdown — from what I see from Emeev is that his main game is clinching fighting and also slinging that right hand and not much else. He jabs here and there but he doesn’t really follow up anything behind that jab. He only throws that right hand. He reminds me of Rustam Khabilov. Again, from tape I’ve seen, he’s just a master at finding the clinch and throwing knees. He tries slows the pace down to his liking. Not much variety at all.

Mina on the other hand is a shoot-first, ask-questions later type of guy. He will lead the dance and throw wild hooks, kicks, and flying knees to force the action. He’s a 3rd degree black belt in BJJ so he doesn’t mind a wild scramble. If you end up ducking under a wild hook and take him down he’s fine with working his guard. He’s also claimed to be a Judo Black belt as well so he’s not afraid to go for his own TDs as well. He’s not a great wrestler but a very willing one.

Seeing how their style clashes, I think it could end up being a close match with some bias towards Mina. If Emeev plays his card the way he usually does, you can’t expect him to get 30-27s with a game plan revolving clinching up and containing Mina by throwing knees in Brazil against a Brazilian.

And being that Emeev only throws a right hand and maybe a couple jabs, I don’t see him he’ll keep Mina from coming at him like a madman. Judges love that shit. It’s the Diego Sanchez effect. And plus, Mina has been training at King’s MMA for this camp, you can expect him to be a lil sharper.

I’m on Mina. I think he’s going to push the action in the stand up and Emeev doesn’t throw with enough variety. He also isn’t going to be able to stay on top on Mina for long periods of time should he get TDs but I do think Emeev can win this if he’s able to fight his fight and wear Mina’s questionable gas tank down with the clinch. I rate Emeev’s clinch very highly he knows what he’s doing there.

 

[zeckdo]

my thoughts on the night.

Emeev vs Mina is going to be the closest fight all night, maybe even FOTN.

Aliev's only path to victory is catching Alves with something on the feet, but still passing on +528.

Thales Leites TKO +800 is appealing, feel like Hermasson won't be able to get his ground game going and will get caught.

Don't understand the logic behind betting Olineyk/Albini, both of these guys are SO inconsistent, pretty bad cardio too.

Machida/Vitor is definitely going the distance, can't believe it opened at plus money. +8500 draw is worth a dollar.

Lineker is the oldest 27 year old in MMA history, Kelleher's output and performance against Barao impressed me, think Lineker is fading already, fight should be a brawl, see a lot of people playing DNGTD but I think both of their chins hold, Kelleher will probably get screwed out of a decision.

Even though Dern is a lazy pos the weight difference should play a huge factor in the grappling, as someone pointed out before how often do we see a wmma fight where a fighter is able to use footwork and striking to totally avoid clinch/takedowns? It's beyond rare, if Dern gets hold of her within 90 seconds of the round ending that should be a wrap.

Kelvin round 1 is my only play so far this fight. Jacare's striking is still dangerous (underestimated the fuck outta him against Brunson) Great observation by someone saying Weidman had to really work to sub Kelvin, 11 TD attemps, Jacare doesn't have that type of energy.

I cap Nunes -400, free rolling Rocky ML, Nunes dec, Not Nunes ITD, Raquel will need some good striking defense in the early rounds to keep her in the fight, but once round 3 rolls around I think she will be able to take Nunes down. Not necessarily finish her, but get her down.
15% chance Rocky finish rd 3,4,5
5% chance Rocky dec
15% chance Nunes finish
65% Nunes decision

Quality of the card is a C+, betting wise, B+. Just happy to get some UFC back after 3 week draught. Will be tuning into Bellator and Loma-Linares as well.

 

[iGnP]

Hey @Oblivian and @iGnP , wondering what your leans are for tonight.

Jacare, Leites, Lineker, Roberson, Oliynyk (small)

 

[Rebel_LioN]

As for Hermansson, he’ll run around the cage and pop his jabs out and probably win a decision. Brad Tavares was able to do that exact game plan.

I don’t know what Herman’s IQ is like but I don’t think he’ll want to spend much time in the clinch or try to take Leites down.

Leites’ only path to victory is to get in Herman’s face, eat a few punches and try to find the clinch, while lacing him his legs and working towards his back. Maybe catch an arm triangle like Cezar did. It could happen, but leaning towards Hermansson.

If you were in Vegas, and parlayed Jack Hermansson with o2.5, you’d get +195.

On 5dimes, his decision line is +187.

But the difference is that if Herman finishes after the 2.5, I still cash and the decision bet on 5dimes is a bust.

I remember a time where Leon Edwards decision paid out -120 (yuck) and parlaying the o2.5 with Edwards ML paid out +110. Leon ended up finishing the fight at 4:59 of the 3rd round and the vegas bet won, while the decision would have lost (not that I paid the juice on that 5d prop).

It kinda goes to show you where you are on the value spectrum if you’re wondering whether to take a prop at a certain price so there’s some food for thought.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Strickland, imo, isn't particularly great at any one facet of mma except for the one that is the most important, which is, at the end of the fight he's the one getting his hand raised. Not that easy to get a 19-2 record in pro mma and your only losses coming from elite Ponz and wrestlemania Usman.