UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Gastelum - Discussion Thread

[StewDogg11]

Macedo was clearly the better fighter. She simply gassed after the first round. Malecki essentially won by default by being slightly more active (and looking terrible doing it). I can't speak to Santana.

Lol since when does cardio not factor into how good of a fighter you are. Poor take.

 

[Bakayoko]

The opening price for Gastelum at some bookies at 2.80 definitely had value.Cannonier is a rightfull favorite,but those odds were wide.Kelvin has traditionaly had problems against southpaw stances,Jared hits hard,he'll mix the lowkicks too,but he ain't as tehnical as Adesanya/Whittaker and Gastelum has an iron chin.I can see Kelvin surviving the first two rounds and then taking over.Have a feeling people starting too underestimate him now,but he's had some tough match ups.
Give Pichel a little edge over Hubbard,he is old but looked real good in his last match against Jim Miller.It should be a grindy match,expect it very much to go to the judges.Same with Madsen-Guida,don't see a finish there.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I have a play on Gastelum,Cannonier is dangerous for his Ko ability but this is a fight that will go past five rounds.

I see this one likely ending up in the Dec.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

This line is crazy, 5 other books have it at +600-1000.

 

[Sono07]

Tough call on the main event. Jared doesn't seem like the most technical but you can't discount his power. Kelvin is a crafty southpaw but it's hard to know which version of him shows up to fight.

Leaning Kelvin by decision. Jared doesn't have alot of experience at 185. That and Robs chin is a little shaky at times, Jack never seems to react well to powershots either. Hot take I guess Kelvin is hard to gage at times.

 

[Sono07]

Maybe that arm break against Rob swayed me a bit. I didn't realize that fight was nearly a year ago. Weird card but I haven't had alot of time to look at it.

 

[2020Tracked]

What am I missing with Jones at -150 against Kakharamonov? Are people picking kakharamonov just because he has a russian sounding name?? LOL

Have you watched his fights? He's very good

 

[Broe.]

Pichel at pick'em odds is a gift. I really don't know what people see in Hubbard? I remember he was also the favourite vs Solecki which was completely laughable. The guy is mediocre at best, he even lost the first round vs a nobody in Dakota Bush. This line is just silly, I am hammering Pichel.

 

[sonhow]

Am I wrong but did the sportsline guy mix Pichel and Hubbard up? I would think Hubbard is the one to try keep it standing.

 

[DonQ94]

Pichel at pick'em odds is a gift. I really don't know what people see in Hubbard? I remember he was also the favourite vs Solecki which was completely laughable. The guy is mediocre at best, he even lost the first round vs a nobody in Dakota Bush. This line is just silly, I am hammering Pichel.

I agree, Hubbard tends to get dominated by every decent grappler he faces. Pichel fits the mold and looked quite decent in his last fight.

 

[BigSteve]

man, another tough card. Taped some fights twice in search of value. On the other hand live bet could be a goldmine. I will keep the breakdowns short:

Brahimaj/Polatnikov: If I knew Brahimaj would fight like his regional tape I would have a better read. Volatile fight, both could finish, it could also go DEC if Brahimaj fights like his last fight. I think the under where its at and Brahimaj as slight fav is accurate and there is 0 value. I have a small amount on Brahimaj SUB only due to 100% of his wins coming by that method.

Bae/Nunes: In this moment in time this is the only play I kind of like haha. Taped so I can jump on the Bea side with my comrades, left thinking I like Nunes as dog. Only way Bea can win her fights, from what I have seen, is her opponents gassing from beating her up and literally falling over. Unless you are a straweight Macedo. On another day Macedo 30-27s her. Bea also gassed in that fight massively from walking forward doing fuck all? Nunes is short but she isnt a SW, she actually fought at LW. Bea is not athletic, has no power, no IQ and might have worse cardio. Iv seen Nunes finish 2 opponents in the second with a barrage of punches while also not taking the stool in between rounds. Waiting for a better line after weigh-ins, and a lil on a live bet.

Brian/Pilarte: Brian should be the side here. He is a durable veteran, and he usually steamrolls lower-level opponents. Pilarte is chinny with shit defence but he is aggressive and the line is bit wide. Seen Brian uncomfortable in standup against bigger guys like Jackson, Ode and Vera. He usually shoots asap. Vera also submitted him using the 2 on 1 kimura grip, Pilartes go to move when people are wrestling him. I might be going too deep there but there is too many red flags to hit Brian. Live bet maybe after Pilartes has calmed down a bit.

Pichel/Hubbard: Was leaning Pichel pre-tape. Hubbard has lost every round 1 in UFC, even against Kyle who didn't grapple him. Pichel is my man, been betting on him every fight since he came back minus the Gillespie fight. He knows how to turn it on to steal rounds which I love. Funny matchup as both guys have been winning fights after their opponents have gassed. Pichel grinds on them and Hubbard picks them apart after they have grinded him early. Neither will gas so I see a super close fight. Pichel can win without grappling he did it against Silva but it was a split. Play would be Pichel decision but the smart thing is probably to pass.

Jones/Kuckman: I like this kid, animal. if odds were a bit better I would hit him and hedge with Jones KO. He seems to slow down a bit as he comes out hard. Very well rounded, has great wrestling and a ground game. Jones gives me Lewis vibes though. Bautista is twice the fighter and he didn't seem to do any damage to Jones until he got KOed. Most likely another pass.

Guida/Madsen: Cant get a solid read. Madsen is an athletic beast, but he slows down. He might get Guida out of there but im not confident. Watching Guidas fights against grapplers I think Madsen has his hands full if it gets out of round 1. Another live bet spot for me.

 

[Card]

Trevin Jones (135) vs. Saidyokub Kakhramonov (138.5)*
* Kakhramonov missed weight by 2.5 pounds and was fined 20 percent of his purse but the bout will go on as scheduled

 

[EndlessCritic]

Bea Malecki looking like Vigo from Ghostbusters.

Pilarte looks a bit bigger than Kelleher. I've lost a lot of money betting against Kelleher, but it's hard to turn down +odds...

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

Ended up taking the -3.5pts +185 instead for madsen.

Seems like a good play. Kinda surprised at it being so high, but Guida is 39 and has a lot of miles on him.

 

[Noel Wards]

I'm taking the risk on Parker. Pretty good boxing for HW. Has the cardio for some pretty voluminous stuff despite being 265lbs. BJJ brown belt and heavy GnP.

I think Sherman is a real bad fighter. Hasn't got good power. His striking is pretty bad, defense is real bad.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

I'm taking the risk on Parker. Pretty good boxing for HW. Has the cardio for some pretty voluminous stuff despite being 265lbs. BJJ brown belt and heavy GnP.

I think Sherman is a real bad fighter. Hasn't got good power. His striking is pretty bad, defense is real bad.

Terrible cardio too.

 

[Noel Wards]

Terrible cardio too.

It's the HW standard.

 

[Thesnake101]

I'm taking the risk on Parker. Pretty good boxing for HW. Has the cardio for some pretty voluminous stuff despite being 265lbs. BJJ brown belt and heavy GnP.

I think Sherman is a real bad fighter. Hasn't got good power. His striking is pretty bad, defense is real bad.

You don't think Sherman will just leg kick him to death and finish him in the second? Way I see it go down is Chase tanking shots to land leg kicks and elbows up close.

 

[KingRyan]

There is a Brave FC card Saturday night as well and my bookie is offering lines.

Brad Katona is fighting might play him.
Looks like alot of Dagastani favorites on the card anyone have any leans???

 

[Noel Wards]

You don't think Sherman will just leg kick him to death and finish him in the second? Way I see it go down is Chase tanking shots to land leg kicks and elbows up close.

It's a possibility. He threw plenty leg kicks in the Arloksvi fight. It didn't seem to matter too much. He just gassed, and by round 3 was too tired to anything but just eat everything. I just think Parker has the much better striking and cardio. And enough power to earn respect.