man, another tough card. Taped some fights twice in search of value. On the other hand live bet could be a goldmine. I will keep the breakdowns short:
Brahimaj/Polatnikov: If I knew Brahimaj would fight like his regional tape I would have a better read. Volatile fight, both could finish, it could also go DEC if Brahimaj fights like his last fight. I think the under where its at and Brahimaj as slight fav is accurate and there is 0 value. I have a small amount on Brahimaj SUB only due to 100% of his wins coming by that method.
Bae/Nunes: In this moment in time this is the only play I kind of like haha. Taped so I can jump on the Bea side with my comrades, left thinking I like Nunes as dog. Only way Bea can win her fights, from what I have seen, is her opponents gassing from beating her up and literally falling over. Unless you are a straweight Macedo. On another day Macedo 30-27s her. Bea also gassed in that fight massively from walking forward doing fuck all? Nunes is short but she isnt a SW, she actually fought at LW. Bea is not athletic, has no power, no IQ and might have worse cardio. Iv seen Nunes finish 2 opponents in the second with a barrage of punches while also not taking the stool in between rounds. Waiting for a better line after weigh-ins, and a lil on a live bet.
Brian/Pilarte: Brian should be the side here. He is a durable veteran, and he usually steamrolls lower-level opponents. Pilarte is chinny with shit defence but he is aggressive and the line is bit wide. Seen Brian uncomfortable in standup against bigger guys like Jackson, Ode and Vera. He usually shoots asap. Vera also submitted him using the 2 on 1 kimura grip, Pilartes go to move when people are wrestling him. I might be going too deep there but there is too many red flags to hit Brian. Live bet maybe after Pilartes has calmed down a bit.
Pichel/Hubbard: Was leaning Pichel pre-tape. Hubbard has lost every round 1 in UFC, even against Kyle who didn't grapple him. Pichel is my man, been betting on him every fight since he came back minus the Gillespie fight. He knows how to turn it on to steal rounds which I love. Funny matchup as both guys have been winning fights after their opponents have gassed. Pichel grinds on them and Hubbard picks them apart after they have grinded him early. Neither will gas so I see a super close fight. Pichel can win without grappling he did it against Silva but it was a split. Play would be Pichel decision but the smart thing is probably to pass.
Jones/Kuckman: I like this kid, animal. if odds were a bit better I would hit him and hedge with Jones KO. He seems to slow down a bit as he comes out hard. Very well rounded, has great wrestling and a ground game. Jones gives me Lewis vibes though. Bautista is twice the fighter and he didn't seem to do any damage to Jones until he got KOed. Most likely another pass.
Guida/Madsen: Cant get a solid read. Madsen is an athletic beast, but he slows down. He might get Guida out of there but im not confident. Watching Guidas fights against grapplers I think Madsen has his hands full if it gets out of round 1. Another live bet spot for me.