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- Nov 14, 2020
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What exactly does a Paddy win look like? Him winning an extremely low volume striking match by decision or knocking Leavitt out in the first round?
Paddy may throw his punches straighter than Jordan but without a willing dance partner I haven't seen anything to suggest he can effectively cut off the cage and walk his opponent down to land a "knockout blow". I also haven't seen anything to suggest he has the punching power to hurt an opponent that is not totally caught off guard. He appears to have average punching power. I am not saying he cannot be effective with it but against an opponent like Leavitt looking to strictly grapple he may not have much of an opportunity. Leavitt may have ugly technique but he doesn't appear to leave a lot of openings for an elementary striker to exploit. Leavitt cracked his opponent square on the jaw at 3:05 of Round 3 in his last fight and that opponent stumbled and almost immediately shot an ill-advised TD (that costed him the fight). Leavitt does appear to have some offense on the feet for what its worth. I don't think he is Ben Askren on the feet as some seem to believe.
Leavitt has shown a consistent ability to dictate the terms of his fights. He has turned every single one of his UFC fights into a slow paced grappling match. The lone exception being against Trey Ogden, an offensive grappler of a similar grappling skill level to Paddy who attempted to strike, and Ogden still largely fought a fight dictated by where Leavitt felt comfortable engaging and lost.
Leavitt was able to outgrapple/outscramble Claudio Puelles for an entire round when both were fresh. I don't think it is unlikely that he can push a similar fight on Paddy and steal the final round against an exhausted Paddy to win a decision (which is +500 currently).
I think while Paddy is bad they pickedaun upgrade for him from his last oponnent but still the one that he matches up good with.Maybe a slight advantage in jits to Jordan but Paddy's been submited once and it was 9 years ago and the question is will Jordan get it to the ground.And to win a decision against Paddy in his hometown I think Leavitt will have to be significally better.He ain't a power puncher to exploit Paddys striking defense so I guess Paddy wins by unleashing some volume punches,he's faster like mentioned.I think Paddy's BJJ is good enough to hang with Leavitt on the ground if he needs to, I don't think Leavitt has particularly dynamic takedowns and I think he's pretty slow on the feet. I reckon Paddy cracks him if he gets too close and I wouldn't rule out Paddy outgrappling him either.
Jai KO line is good,like the value,if he wins it's very very likely a KO.He's got the reach advantage,better hands.An under is a good hedge.
For now won't play Molly,Mokaev or Wood but for sure won't play the dogs there.Too bad Molly's line is so low,she looked the best she's been last time and yet again is hard to lose a decision for her at home,small chances for Goldy to win a decision or sub,still WMMA.
I put something on Krylov,yeah he sometimes fight stupid and the off time could benefit Guss,but man Guss has looked so slow and bad in his last fights,I don't think he can get some stuff back.
The dogs worth play are Craig and perhaps Klein.I managed though to catch a mistake from the local Croatian bookies who for some odd reason opened Volkan at 2,90 and put something around 150$ on it(limit for more) so I'm just gonna hedge a bit with Craig.