UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall

UFCIsNOTRigged said:
What exactly does a Paddy win look like? Him winning an extremely low volume striking match by decision or knocking Leavitt out in the first round?

Paddy may throw his punches straighter than Jordan but without a willing dance partner I haven't seen anything to suggest he can effectively cut off the cage and walk his opponent down to land a "knockout blow". I also haven't seen anything to suggest he has the punching power to hurt an opponent that is not totally caught off guard. He appears to have average punching power. I am not saying he cannot be effective with it but against an opponent like Leavitt looking to strictly grapple he may not have much of an opportunity. Leavitt may have ugly technique but he doesn't appear to leave a lot of openings for an elementary striker to exploit. Leavitt cracked his opponent square on the jaw at 3:05 of Round 3 in his last fight and that opponent stumbled and almost immediately shot an ill-advised TD (that costed him the fight). Leavitt does appear to have some offense on the feet for what its worth. I don't think he is Ben Askren on the feet as some seem to believe.

Leavitt has shown a consistent ability to dictate the terms of his fights. He has turned every single one of his UFC fights into a slow paced grappling match. The lone exception being against Trey Ogden, an offensive grappler of a similar grappling skill level to Paddy who attempted to strike, and Ogden still largely fought a fight dictated by where Leavitt felt comfortable engaging and lost.

Leavitt was able to outgrapple/outscramble Claudio Puelles for an entire round when both were fresh. I don't think it is unlikely that he can push a similar fight on Paddy and steal the final round against an exhausted Paddy to win a decision (which is +500 currently).
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Hellowhosthat said:
I think Paddy's BJJ is good enough to hang with Leavitt on the ground if he needs to, I don't think Leavitt has particularly dynamic takedowns and I think he's pretty slow on the feet. I reckon Paddy cracks him if he gets too close and I wouldn't rule out Paddy outgrappling him either.
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I think while Paddy is bad they pickedaun upgrade for him from his last oponnent but still the one that he matches up good with.Maybe a slight advantage in jits to Jordan but Paddy's been submited once and it was 9 years ago and the question is will Jordan get it to the ground.And to win a decision against Paddy in his hometown I think Leavitt will have to be significally better.He ain't a power puncher to exploit Paddys striking defense so I guess Paddy wins by unleashing some volume punches,he's faster like mentioned.
Jai KO line is good,like the value,if he wins it's very very likely a KO.He's got the reach advantage,better hands.An under is a good hedge.
For now won't play Molly,Mokaev or Wood but for sure won't play the dogs there.Too bad Molly's line is so low,she looked the best she's been last time and yet again is hard to lose a decision for her at home,small chances for Goldy to win a decision or sub,still WMMA.
I put something on Krylov,yeah he sometimes fight stupid and the off time could benefit Guss,but man Guss has looked so slow and bad in his last fights,I don't think he can get some stuff back.
The dogs worth play are Craig and perhaps Klein.I managed though to catch a mistake from the local Croatian bookies who for some odd reason opened Volkan at 2,90 and put something around 150$ on it(limit for more) so I'm just gonna hedge a bit with Craig.
betvolkan.png
 
Blaydes is now +125

I still don't have a bet on either side. Content with my U2.5 +110 and will live bet during R1, after I see what both guys' game plan is. The lines should still be similar around that time.
 
I think he is humble and realistic, which makes him dangerous, he has a gsp mindset. He doesn't see himself invincible which gives him an adequate assessment on what to work on and play to his strengths. this video makes me favor him more.
Dragons Roar said:


Aspinall approx 10 months ago - Blades is my favourite fighter in the division and I would struggle against him. a nightmare match up for me
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Stat_Collector said:
I think he is humble and realistic, which makes him dangerous, he has a gsp mindset. He doesn't see himself invincible which gives him an adequate assessment on what to work on and play to his strengths. this video makes me favor him more.
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He's also British and a lot of Brits love self-depreciating humour.
 
BigSteve said:
was planning on it, pretty much done tape, but if I dont do it tomorrow I wont be able to this week. Europe has me too busy and im enjoying refreshing my brain from the every day grind of taping and frying the brain
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Take a week off bud, enjoy your holiday.
 
Supposedly Blaydes got paid a lot more to take this fight somewhat short notice, makes me wonder if there was a ‘pride’ style deal cut here with Tom knowing all along he would be fighting Curtis so to give him an extra couple months of sprawling

also I’m fully sold on Chris Curtis now, look at the run in Jacks fought, he’s not fought many power punchers recently, mostly grapplers, Chris will give him problems
 
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DarkneT said:
Supposedly Blaydes got paid a lot more to take this fight somewhat short notice, makes me wonder if there was a ‘pride’ style deal cut here with Tom knowing all along he would be fighting Curtis so to give him an extra couple months of sprawling

also I’m fully sold on Chris Curtis now, look at the run in Jacks fought, he’s not fought many punchers recently, mostly grapplers, Chris will give him problems
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Strickland and Vettori fights were pretty much all stand up.
 
Urgh, they completely changed 5dimes' layout. And of course they went for 'looks pretty' than something functional.

Site is slow and sluggish, grey background on a darker grey font is a fucking pain to read, don't they understand the principle of camouflage is literally the antagonist to readability? But at the same time everything manages to take up way more space. They used to have a little dropdown menu for the over 4.5-3.5-2.5-1.5, and unders, but now every one of those props take up a seperate and permanent space, so you spend ages scrolling through shit to find a particular prop you want to bet on, also means that half the props are on a second page now, which also has to load if you want to go there. Can't copy and paste text anymore, so I have to type out all my bets on my notepad now.

What a fucking pain in the ass.....
 
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TrueAscension said:
I get the feeling he actually takes Blaydes down in the first round and submits him.
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Whoa...I think Aspinall wins. I think he finishes. Could be by sub. But I don't see him taking Curtis down, that's tough to imagine. I think a club n sub is absolutely on the table. In fact I kinda think that's how it goes. Tom stuns Curtis and drops him, rushes in and ends up getting his back or locking in some type of choke.
 
mkess101 said:
Whoa...I think Aspinall wins. I think he finishes. Could be by sub. But I don't see him taking Curtis down, that's tough to imagine. I think a club n sub is absolutely on the table. In fact I kinda think that's how it goes. Tom stuns Curtis and drops him, rushes in and ends up getting his back or locking in some type of choke.
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Works for me lol
 
BigSteve said:
was planning on it, pretty much done tape, but if I dont do it tomorrow I wont be able to this week. Europe has me too busy and im enjoying refreshing my brain from the every day grind of taping and frying the brain
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Still hope to get some of your insights tommorow hehe,but I totally get you,it can be tiring,enjoy your free time man
 
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