General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - February, 2018

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Sham5916910 said:
I havent watched paddy tape and cant remember him too well. I did watch tape on his opponent tho and hes not the fundamentally flawed type i like fading on cw shows. Cant really comment on how i think this goes but the guys not a mug.
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So then Savvidis is a bet @3.50
 


Finally groovy lando gets another fight. I guess oam didn't want to rebook?
 
Naught2Sixty said:


And another great fight announcement for good measure.
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fuck yeah, still got my gastelum to be champ by the end of the year bet live. i just hope robert can squeeze two fights in (or potentially just one if he loses) this year with his injuries.
 
piglord said:
fuck yeah, still got my gastelum to be champ by the end of the year bet live. i just hope robert can squeeze two fights in (or potentially just one if he loses) this year with his injuries.
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What odds you got on Kelvin? Obviously you will hedge out with Bob even though he'll be super juiced if Kelvin were to get the title shot?
 
mkess101 said:
What odds you got on Kelvin? Obviously you will hedge out with Bob even though he'll be super juiced if Kelvin were to get the title shot?
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£30 returns £450 whatever that works out as.
 
piglord said:
£30 returns £450 whatever that works out as.
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American odds +1500.

If Kelvin beats Jacare and looks decent doing so and Bob wins one fight prior to that (Yoel rematch or whatever) I'd say Bob will be maybe -250 to -300 vs Kelvin?

You'll be able to lock up some nice profit if Kelvin gets his shot imo.
 
mkess101 said:
American odds +1500.

If Kelvin beats Jacare and looks decent doing so and Bob wins one fight prior to that (Yoel rematch or whatever) I'd say Bob will be maybe -250 to -300 vs Kelvin?

You'll be able to lock up some nice profit if Kelvin gets his shot imo.
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why not let it ride? that's like hedging a SB future. you have amazing odds, you should let it ride

/rant
 
iGnP said:
why not let it ride? that's like hedging a SB future. you have amazing odds, you should let it ride

/rant
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For sure you could, to me it would depend how you cap the fight. Personally, I think Robert is a horrible matchup for Kelvin but that said if you end up having to pay too much juice on Bob I could definitely see letting it ride. I suppose it depends on the line if the fight happens and how you feel about the matchup.

In MMA esp, a future bet to be champ might have you feeling way way different about whether to hedge based on the matchup if your guy gets to a title shot. Styles making fights and all that.
 
mkess101 said:
For sure you could, to me it would depend how you cap the fight. Personally, I think Robert is a horrible matchup for Kelvin but that said if you end up having to pay too much juice on Bob I could definitely see letting it ride. I suppose it depends on the line if the fight happens and how you feel about the matchup.

In MMA esp, a future bet to be champ might have you feeling way way different about whether to hedge based on the matchup if your guy gets to a title shot. Styles making fights and all that.
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how you cap the fight is precisely the reason you should let it ride. +1500 is 6.3%. Surely you can't think there's no value in that.
 
Burmese Python a -570 favorite tomorrow? Seems like a touch much. Moving up in weight against a bigger BJJ black belt that will look for the takedown. Grappling against someone that much larger is exhausting if you're not used to it.
 
i'm probably just going to let it ride, £450 or thereabouts is normally what i'd win every weekend on my 2 man parlays (which have been sucking dick lately).
 
iGnP said:
how you cap the fight is precisely the reason you should let it ride. +1500 is 6.3%. Surely you can't think there's no value in that.
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Of course. But if you cap Whit -350 and he opens -150 (just as an example) I could see hedging out some if you want to be a bit more conservative. It's definitely not wrong to still let it ride, but at the very least freerolling it isn't a horrible idea imo. It's only if you see a lot of value on the guy you DON'T have in your futures bet vs the actual line.

You don't even have to necessarily look at it as "hedging". You could say "When I first made my future bet on Kelvin at +1500 to hold the title, I saw great value in it so I bet it." Then look at your current bet as a completely separate bet. "I heavily favor Whit over Kelvin and cap him at -350. At -150 he is a steal so I'm betting him."
 
mkess101 said:
Of course. But if you cap Whit -350 and he opens -150 (just as an example) I could see hedging out some if you want to be a bit more conservative. It's definitely not wrong to still let it ride, but at the very least freerolling it isn't a horrible idea imo. It's only if you see a lot of value on the guy you DON'T have in your futures bet vs the actual line.

You don't even have to necessarily look at it as "hedging". You could say "When I first made my future bet on Kelvin at +1500 to hold the title, I saw great value in it so I bet it." Then look at your current bet as a completely separate bet. "I heavily favor Whit over Kelvin and cap him at -350. At -150 he is a steal so I'm betting him."
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That'd be somewhat equivalent to me hedging my Eagles SB bet at +5000 win the Pats ML before the SB starts. Obv hindsight is 20/20 but yeah...
 
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iGnP said:
That'd be somewhat equivalent to me hedging my Eagles SB bet at +5000 win the Pats ML before the SB starts. Obv hindsight is 20/20 but yeah...
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Kind of. I guess it depends on how you viewed the game as a stand-alone. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that you shouldn't let the futures bet you made a year ago influence you into betting or not betting something where you see value.

I'd say it works the other way too honestly. Let's say Kelvin is +1000 on the ML vs Bob (won't happen, but for this hypothetical we'll go with it). Just because you have a futures bet on Kelvin at better odds than that doesn't necessarily mean you wouldn't add to it if you saw huge value in his ML right? Obviously you need to still practice BR management, etc. but even though you are diluting your original price, you are getting more $ in on something you perceive as having great value.

I guess my point is, don't hedge just to hedge. But if you see value, bet it like you normally would. Esp given that unless you are being really reckless, you probably don't have a big bet on a long shot future anyway. You've invested small to win big, so you don't have a lot of your own $ on it anyway. When it comes near the end and you're still alive, play it normally. If Whit is -200 and @piglord caps him -300, he should still play Whit in that spot imo.
 
Molly KO was +350 at Betsafe while sub is +200 lmao! Sorry i moved it quick lads but this is a 5 round fight very unlikely Bryony lasts. Molly is a mini Andrade on the feet
 
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looks like Nastyukhin dominated (could not find a stream).. hope someone else got on him at +odds :)

 
Nice, I had one unit on him close to evens.
Do you know the result for Machado as well?
 
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