If Stipe beats Jones, I think a lot of people will say Jones looked fat/slow/heavy and was truly a LHW blah blah blah.
In my opinion, it would possibly edge him over Fedor.
I'd also argue that if Pavlovich beats Jones, he's in the discussion. Especially because he would likely have to beat him twice, given Jones' history/resume.
Jones is never fighting him... this was his plan.. to win the belt , fight Stipe and ride off into the sunset