UFC fight night 138

I will preface this by saying that Souk possibly has the worst fight IQ in the UFC and I am aware of that. Even with that, I am still going in on him at the price drop. I have 2.5u -164 and .5u KO +421. At his best he pressures guys against the fence using feints to draw out their strikes and then counters with power shots. He has shown the ability to land hard counters off of his back foot as well, dropping perez 3 times with jabs while perez was trying to get inside (he absolutely won that fight btw). Souk is a technical striker with big power, however lacks volume and obviously brains as we all saw him shoot for continued tds when he could've won the fight by simply making O'malley prove to the ref he could walk.

Martinez is an extremely green 125er moving up on short notice for this fight. He has shown zero wrestling ability, appears physically weak even at 125, and has relied on being able to sub low end competetion from his back. His striking consists of spamming left kicks to all areas and will occasionaly follow that up with some wide punches. He should be tailor made for Souks pressure, as he was pressured by multiple 125ers who landed hard shots (Schnell and Carlos), and counters as he is open af when he throws his offense. This is an IQ test for Souk, which sounds bad, but all he needs is a D. I think he KO's martinez early if he pressures or later on if he sets into a rhythm with his countering game.

Edit: Fuck nevermind guys, didn't realize Martinez was training Different Breed MMA. You all should check their tapology page before pulling the trigger:

https://www.tapology.com/gyms/4562-different-breed-mma

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Not seeing any chatter on MJ missing weight (sorry if there has been and I missed it). He missed by a pound.
 
Soccer Steve said:
Not seeing any chatter on MJ missing weight (sorry if there has been and I missed it). He missed by a pound.
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WIsh he wouldn't have tried to hard to make the weight, Artem already said he would still fight and wouldn't take his 20% purse. If he looks shit after rehydrating you can always lb Artem after rd1, highly doubtful MJ doesn't own him while fresh.
 
Whole lot of money has come in on Golm... Feel good about grabbing him early at +175.
 
Stunna77 said:
WIsh he wouldn't have tried to hard to make the weight, Artem already said he would still fight and wouldn't take his 20% purse. If he looks shit after rehydrating you can always lb Artem after rd1, highly doubtful MJ doesn't own him while fresh.
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If he missed by 5+ I would think he did it on purpose. Missing by 1 pound makes me want to bet Lobov.
 
What does anyone think of Golm chances? he has an interesting high power for an early TKO.
 
BigAl-ThePal said:
Same here brotha! Excited most of my underdogs I've picked have changed considerably in my favor
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I'm a little concerned that Golm went from the low 240's to the mid 250's for this bout... Though he is still young and that kind of thing tends to happen. I still think he'll be able to push a better pace than if not outright overwhelm Bhullar.
 
clemente said:
Is Volkan the most overrated UFC fighter ever?
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KO'd Manuwa clean, KO'd Cirkunov clean and won close fight against OSP. Why you calling him overrated? Because he lost to p4p #1 fighter? Okay then
 
I'm gonna start posting my bets and let me know what you think of them if you agree/disagree whatever.... All bets are .50 units unless noted
Stevie Ray -150
Marcelo Golm +180
Talita Bernado +170
Chris fishgold +220
Sean Strickland -115
Ed Herman +225
Johnathan Martinez +170
Patrick Cummins +380
Anthony Smith +165 (1 unit)
Underdogs are live on this card Imo all but Thibault and Mr .500 Aka get to the cage Artem Lobov
Also betting multiple Under 2 1/2
May seem like a boring card but I think it will be exciting and we will have lots of finishes. Cards like these always end up like that. Best of luck to yall and enjoy the fights!
 
Cirkunov fights out of Canada, correct? So he's effectively home for this event.
 
i have half a unit on golm at +175, he could get grinded on but i'll take my chances.
 
Danis_champ said:
KO'd Manuwa clean, KO'd Cirkunov clean and won close fight against OSP. Why you calling him overrated? Because he lost to p4p #1 fighter? Okay then
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Guessing it was moreso how he KO'd Manuwa and Cirk. In all of the tape on him outside of those two flukey KO's he looks thoroughly unimpressive. His pre UFC fight with Vakhaev was pathetic and IMO he lost the decision to OSP, which is pretty hard to do given OSP tends to be finish or bust, but then again so does Volkan. He is overrated because he jumped to a #1 contender spot and frankly isn't very good.
 
piglord said:
i have half a unit on golm at +175, he could get grinded on but i'll take my chances.
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Have we ever seen Bhullar actually effectively wrestle fuck someone though? He ended up on top of Henrique early but did literally nothing with it, just laid heavy on him like a big sack of shit. I believe Rogan even commented that many refs would have stood them up.

I remember him nicking the first two rounds of that bout and completely giving away the third against a much fresher looking Henrique, who was out striking (!) Bhuller in the last round. A red flag for me because Henrique has next to no power in his shots and his striking is basic at best. And he's a fighter with noted bad stamina but despite that looked the much fresher fighter against Bhuller.... I honestly really see a Golm win in the distance is in play here, I think Golm's jab will bust Bhuller up and set everything up.
 
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LiquidNuke said:
Cirkunov fights out of Canada, correct? So he's effectively home for this event.
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He's been training at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas lately. Used to train in the Toronto area, but that's nowhere near Moncton, New Brunswick anyway. Canada is a big country.
 
JimGunn said:
He's been training at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas lately. Used to train in the Toronto area, but that's nowhere near Moncton, New Brunswick anyway. Canada is a big country.
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Yeah, my bad for over simplifying.
 
Stunna77 said:
Guessing it was moreso how he KO'd Manuwa and Cirk. In all of the tape on him outside of those two flukey KO's he looks thoroughly unimpressive. His pre UFC fight with Vakhaev was pathetic and IMO he lost the decision to OSP, which is pretty hard to do given OSP tends to be finish or bust, but then again so does Volkan. He is overrated because he jumped to a #1 contender spot and frankly isn't very good.
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Exactly, both those KO's were kinda fluky. I've heard serious cappers calling him the "european Rumble Johnson" which is just so wrong. I guess DC broke them both and Volkan also only got cardio for 1 round, but that's about it. He gassed out after 1 round against OSP, was noticabely slowing down 3 minutes into his fight with DC. I think he's also putting unnecessary pressure on himself to come out like a house on fire and try to finish early by coming up with the nickname "No Time"
There also seems to be a widespread opinion that Smith is not durable and have a bad chin... He's been knocked out once in 7 years and that was from a bodyshot from Thiago Santos, whom he ate a clean headkick from before that without buckling. On top of that he got 20 pounds less to cut now.
 
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I am huge on Lionheart.

I feel like everybody is still holding the slow starts against Mutapcic, Sanchez, and Lombard against him and not giving him enough credit for Rashad and Shogun bc they old.

Shogun at least was coming off a good fight vs Villante, and Smith looked absolutely phenomenal in the cage against him. That's not the same guy who fought Lombard, moving up to 205 seems to be helping him quite a bit.

And I echo the sentiments of everybody else on Volkan being overrated. He looked pathetic past round 1 against Vakhaev and OSP. And the issue is even worse in a 5 round fight against a guy like Smith who always performs well late.

And if Santos couldn't put Smith away in round at 185, I don't think Volkan is likely to do so at 205. And if Smith survives round 1, I don't see how gassed Volkan survives 4 more rounds and wins.

I feel bad cardio is often an overrated point, but Volkan might have the worst cardio of any ranked fighter in the UFC.
 
After doing some more research, I'm not going to be betting on the main event. I was initially liking the line, as I felt Oezdemir would be underrated coming off the decisive loss to Cormier and Smith would be overrated for having beaten two washed-up legends in impressive fashion.

That being said, going through Oezdemir's fights, he has a lot of flaws and question marks of his own which were also masked by two nice knockout victories over Cirkunov and Manuwa.
 
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