UFC fight night 138

[GoldenWolf87]

Lets cut to the chase brothas! What do we think as a whole is the best and most likely to hit bet bet ? Parlay or straight what is putting money in our accounts this weekend ?? Nothing sticks out to me substantially on this card.

The only thing i like from this card.
Smith vs Volkan.
Te Edwards.
Golm.

 

[Danis_champ]

I have more support and positive emery here, much more motivated here, I have a nutritionist at the PI, I couldn't put weight on my foot, it was broken, my head space wasn't there, I have a gameplan and I'm working so hard, my style has completely changed, my coach is awesome, Tate is a good training partner, so much support here

Thanks for the info added more on Bernardo. Before this interview it was a coin flip fight for me and hearing this plus Talita big dog mmm had to put money on Talita

 

[piglord]

absolutely terrible card but here we go anyway:

http://piglordmma.com/2018/10/25/uf...ezdemir-vs-anthony-smith-betting-predictions/

 

[zeckdo]

I would quit betting entirely if I had to re-watch fights for handicapping purposes. I very rarely do so.

really? I probably re-watch 3-5 fights every card. I know for a fact I watched Pudilova vs Moras, but did I pay close attention? no way. same with Aldana vs Bernardo, watched it live, but I had 0 recollection of it until I started re-watching.

 

[chemmy]

really? I probably re-watch 3-5 fights every card. I know for a fact I watched Pudilova vs Moras, but did I pay close attention? no way. same with Aldana vs Bernardo, watched it live, but I had 0 recollection of it until I started re-watching.

Yep, me too. Despite having a shitty memory in my everyday life, there aren’t many fights that I don’t remember but I still go back and re-watch quite a few with a specific matchup in mind. Kevin Lee vs Al Iaquinta is one that’s on my list for Sunday. That’s one of the few that I can barely remember.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Yep, me too. Despite having a shitty memory in my everyday life, there aren’t many fights that I don’t remember but I still go back and re-watch quite a few with a specific matchup in mind. Kevin Lee vs Al Iaquinta is one that’s on my list for Sunday. That’s one of the few that I can barely remember.

Watched that recently. I have a note about Lee having trouble with Al's jab. Lee had some moments in the Barboza fight where that gave him trouble as well. Just food for thought.

 

[zeckdo]

I am playing fishgold at moneyline and his point handicap (+3.5). His wrestling is pretty tenacious and he is great at trapping you up vs the cage and working double legs and trips from there and he also has great single legs. If he gets takedowns here he should win the fight by decision or possibly sub. I also like his cardio as well and his takedowns don’t get worse as the fight goes on.

Although fishgolds standup is decent as well, he tends to throw in spots and Kattar is way more seasoned and composed as a striker. Although I think fishgold will be fine standing, throwing combos, and setting up his tds, Kattar is better standing but I do not think this will be a striking affair at all as fishgold will force Kattar to grapple.

The key question here is can Kattar stop takedowns? If he can’t, he is likely going to lose. If he can, he should win fine. His three ufc fights were not grappling contests so we did not get to see much of his tdd and grappling. Against fili, he stopped two panicked double legs by fili which is not the same as stopping chain wrestling that fishgold has. In these fights, Kattar does look like he is susceptible to being charged up vs the fence, which is a red flag vs fishgold.

I went and watched kattar’s non ufc fights and although they were a long time ago, he seems to have decent defensive and offensive wrestling and a competent top game and base. However, he tends to slow down and his punches lose TREMENDOUS pop when he is forced to grapple. He also gets put up against the cage rather easily against lesser chain wrestlers than fishgold and he tends to start grappling if you force him to. I do not think Kattar can implement a stick and move strategy vs fishgold, he is going to be forced to grapple as fishgold will keep diving for clinches and legs up against the cage. Furthermore, once kattar’s back finally hit the mat in the third round, he was tired and had trouble getting up. Fishgold has shown in cage warriors in a five round fight that he can grapple perfectly fine in championship rounds. Therefore, in this type a fight, I trust fishgold’s cardio far more than calvin’s.

Fishgold’s point handicap at +105 has tremendous value as I find it hard to see Calvin finishing fishgold as his strikes lose pop when he is forced to grapple and also... Calvin has one fucking finish (Burgos) in eight years. Also, I doubt Calvin will clean sweep three rounds vs a tenacious grappler with good cardio. One takedown for fishgold is maybe a round winning event.

I agree with everything, however I would like to see Fishgold on the scales at 145 before I bet on him, you concerned about the weight cut? He looked like a big LW in Cage Warriors, I wanna say 175 in the cage, he might have laid off the juice and dropped the weight easily, but that would be a red flag too. Who knows, I like the matchup though.

 

[zeckdo]

Watched that recently. I have a note about Lee having trouble with Al's jab. Lee had some moments in the Barboza fight where that gave him trouble as well. Just food for thought.

me too, Al's toughness on full display in that fight. good fight, not too excited for rematch for some reason.

 

[Lightbringer]

I agree with everything, however I would like to see Fishgold on the scales at 145 before I bet on him, you concerned about the weight cut? He looked like a big LW in Cage Warriors, I wanna say 175 in the cage, he might have laid off the juice and dropped the weight easily, but that would be a red flag too. Who knows, I like the matchup though.

Chris fought at fw multiple times (although it was 4-5 years ago) so I am not too worried about it. He is also only 25 years old so his body should handle the weight cut fine especially if he has made fw on multiple occasions in the past. I don’t think you should be too concerned about it.

 

[turbozed]

I would quit betting entirely if I had to re-watch fights for handicapping purposes. I very rarely do so.

For me, I have to rewatch fights because I'm looking at and for different things each time. Sometimes the focus is on grappling, someitmes on striking. Sometimes what happens after that fight changes the character and the way you view the fight in retrospect, including analysts pointing out things you didn't notice. Just my two cents.

 

[turbozed]

Lost tip of finger in plumber accident, it's numb, I did a skin graph, hasn't bothered me, took 3 months off, also ACL recovery, couldn't do much grappling, great shape, injury free, I'll break him with my pace, times in the last year, I thought I might not be able to do it anymore, I'll eventually retire, but not yet, hard to walk away from making 105k a night, I like coaching but it doesn't pay the bills, looking into the fire department, always train with Chael

Is Herman claiming he makes 105k per fight? I'm all for higher fighter pay but I'm skeptical af about that. Is he including 2 win bonuses in that number or what?

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Oyyyy @turbozed while you're around...you like Bernado as a dog against cheesecake?

 

[burge13]

I couldn't fathom watching WMMA tape for a bet. Do people not value their own time? Go outside, walk the dog, go to a bar & nick a bird, something.

 

[turbozed]

Thanks as usual card for the interviews.
The biggest red flags to me out of them is the Moras interviews. In the mmajunkie interview she says after her last fight she had a broken foot and couldn't put weight on it for 4 months, said she got fat.

So sounds like she was a fatass who couldn't even walk until late july, and she moved camps in that time. That's rough. Meanwhile Talita won the South American IBJJF championship in late July (masters).

I noticed that too. Basically she couldn't train for 4 months with broken foot, got fat, then moved to Las Vegas 3 or 4 month ago, abandoning her camp that supported her for like 5 years, and then saying she changed her style up completely? Usually those are huge red flags. The only thing is Moras's game before was pulling guard and going for low success rate subs, so maybe change would be good for her. I'm on Bernardo for what it's worth.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Oyyyy @turbozed while you're around...you like Bernado as a dog against cheesecake?

I like the play. Moras plays the guard game and she’s not even good when she’s on top. The other chick is a black belt I suppose and from what I’ve seen she at least as a really good half-guard sweep and good top positioning.

I also really like Golm. I think he’s a prospect at HW. He moves well and is very athletic for a big man. He throws with good mechanics rather than just punch like most HW’s do. He knows how to throw a jab and has good distance. I liked what I saw in his loss against Tim Johnson too. I think he’s going to land leg kicks against Bhullar and also out strike him on the feet.

I’ll also take Nas Haq u1.5 or him by TKO. Dude has great hand speed and throws at angles. Gouti just covers up and gets hit too much.

 

[null]

I noticed that too. Basically she couldn't train for 4 months with broken foot, got fat, then moved to Las Vegas 3 or 4 month ago, abandoning her camp that supported her for like 5 years, and then saying she changed her style up completely? Usually those are huge red flags. The only thing is Moras's game before was pulling guard and going for low success rate subs, so maybe change would be good for her. I'm on Bernardo for what it's worth.

Those are all factors to consider, but I'm worried that Sarah's striking will be significantly better than Bernardo's.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Is Herman claiming he makes 105k per fight? I'm all for higher fighter pay but I'm skeptical af about that. Is he including 2 win bonuses in that number or what?

He made 47k, 51k and 54k in his last 3.

Pretty sure he is counting the win bonus.

 

[turbozed]

Oyyyy @turbozed while you're around...you like Bernado as a dog against cheesecake?

Yea, although I obviously liked it better when the odds were wider for Bernardo. I guess I'll take this opportunity to write something up pretty quick.

We are all pretty familiar with Moras at this point. Girl has some really awkward striking, loves to get put on her back and stay there hunting for submissions, has a style built to lose rounds, and has lackluster cardio. On the plus side, she's pretty tough, has an active guard when it comes to strikes and subs, doesn't give up, and looked a bit better in her striking in her last fight against Pudilova, as well as looking to get top position for the first time ever.

Moras has 2 wins in the UFC not counting TUF fights. Her first was against Alexis Dufresne who really just had her way with Moras wrestling and putting her on the mat. Dufresne somehow gassed out in 1 round but still almost managed to make it very close (with most media thinking Dufresne wins). Her other win is against Evans-Smith where she found an armbar and, instead of just powering out of it as all her opponents do, AES found a way to slowly let the sub get deeper.

Moras finds a way to get on her back and outwrestled with the exception of getting a TD and top position in Rd1 of the Pudilova fight. It was pretty hilarious seeing strawweight Andrade toss her around in several different ways. While Andrade is a freak of nature, she looked every bit 15-20 lbs lighter than Moras, and Moras nevertheless got outmsuscled by every other girl she fought. This leads me to think that, depsite her huge thighs and glutes, she's actually not very strong.

Bernardo is more of a mystery. Given her record, she has absolutely no reason to be in the UFC except for an emergency repalcement, which she was for the Reneau fight. Her best win was against Iren Racz who doesn't even have a winning record. And that fight ended with Racz offering absolutely no resistance to an arm triangle and pass to side control.

Bernardo has looked absolutely terrible in the UFC. Her striking looks shockingly bad as it seems like something she does to keep girls off of her while backing up until she decides when to shoot her next takedown. Her cardio looked awful with her gassing against a 40 year old Reneau. Even fresh, Reneau appeared to be significantly faster than Bernardo.

So why back Bernardo here? Well, the main reason is that this is possibly the best type of style matchup she can get in the UFC. Moras is as foot-slow as Talita, and her willingness to engage in grappling, and accept the bottom position is exactly what Bernardo is looking for. Bernardo is a BJJ black belt who seems to have a decent smothering top game. Her takedowns are the bright spot in her incomplete game and we've seen her shoot several types of TDs, including double legs, trips. More promising is that she can chain wrestle. Although Bernardo is unathletic, I think she may have a strength advantage over Moras here when it comes to just sloth-pace BJJ.

It'll just take one takedown a round for Talita to get top position and control Moras through the round. The stand-up between the two should be comical and, although Moras striking looked pretty decent against Pudilova (Bernardo was able to land someting on Aldana late too, but she's still far worse), I doubt that a ref would be looking to stand them up quickly for more of that sort of ugliness.

Bernardo has shown some bright spots though. The first round against Reneau, where she came in on days notice, displaiyed some good grappling and wrestling. She fell off a cliff instantly but it was encouraging seeing how tough she was throughout that whole fight. Despite looking as gassed as any wmma fighter I've ever seen in the 3rd round, she still fought off a triangle from Reneau, who is good at that technique. This leads me to believe she won't be easily subbed in Moras's guard, unless it's Rd1 and she gets caught in something unexpected or in transition. Bernardo's toughness and willingness to fight was also in display against Aldana where, despite getting destroyed on the feet, she was able to get the fight to the ground and keep it there for a bit. Aldana was able to get to her feet eventually, but Moras has shown zero get-ups in her career.

So if we assume that Bernardo continues to look like shit without any improvements, and her cardio is really that terrible (and not excused by very short notice or diminished by getting punched repeatedly in the face), then she deserves to be an underdog at current odds. However, if we assume that she is a stronger and more technical grappler than Moras, and that the favorable matchup will be much more in her comfort zone, then we might be looking at a different Bernardo that shows and expands on the few positive moments she's had so far. In the most generous light, and if we know this fight takes place on the ground with Bernardo on top, then its really her fight to lose.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I like the play. Moras plays the guard game and she’s not even good when she’s on top. The other chick is a black belt I suppose and from what I’ve seen she at least as a really good half-guard sweep and good top positioning.

I also really like Golm. I think he’s a prospect at HW. He moves well and is very athletic for a big man. He throws with good mechanics rather than just punch like most HW’s do. He knows how to throw a jab and has good distance. I liked what I saw in his loss against Tim Johnson too. I think he’s going to land leg kicks against Bhullar and also out strike him on the feet.

I’ll also take Nas Haq u1.5 or him by TKO. Dude has great hand speed and throws at angles. Gouti just covers up and gets hit too much.

The Nas/Gouti under is my favorite bet on the card.

 

[wellthatruth]

Yea, although I obviously liked it better when the odds were wider for Bernardo. I guess I'll take this opportunity to write something up pretty quick.

We are all pretty familiar with Moras at this point. Girl has some really awkward striking, loves to get put on her back and stay there hunting for submissions, has a style built to lose rounds, and has lackluster cardio. On the plus side, she's pretty tough, has an active guard when it comes to strikes and subs, doesn't give up, and looked a bit better in her striking in her last fight against Pudilova, as well as looking to get top position for the first time ever.

Moras has 2 wins in the UFC not counting TUF fights. Her first was against Alexis Dufresne who really just had her way with Moras wrestling and putting her on the mat. Dufresne somehow gassed out in 1 round but still almost managed to make it very close (with most media thinking Dufresne wins). Her other win is against Evans-Smith where she found an armbar and, instead of just powering out of it as all her opponents do, AES found a way to slowly let the sub get deeper.

Moras finds a way to get on her back and outwrestled with the exception of getting a TD and top position in Rd1 of the Pudilova fight. It was pretty hilarious seeing strawweight Andrade toss her around in several different ways. While Andrade is a freak of nature, she looked every bit 15-20 lbs lighter than Moras, and Moras nevertheless got outmsuscled by every other girl she fought. This leads me to think that, depsite her huge thighs and glutes, she's actually not very strong.

Bernardo is more of a mystery. Given her record, she has absolutely no reason to be in the UFC except for an emergency repalcement, which she was for the Reneau fight. Her best win was against Iren Racz who doesn't even have a winning record. And that fight ended with Racz offering absolutely no resistance to an arm triangle and pass to side control.

Bernardo has looked absolutely terrible in the UFC. Her striking looks shockingly bad as it seems like something she does to keep girls off of her while backing up until she decides when to shoot her next takedown. Her cardio looked awful with her gassing against a 40 year old Reneau. Even fresh, Reneau appeared to be significantly faster than Bernardo.

So why back Bernardo here? Well, the main reason is that this is possibly the best type of style matchup she can get in the UFC. Moras is as foot-slow as Talita, and her willingness to engage in grappling, and accept the bottom position is exactly what Bernardo is looking for. Bernardo is a BJJ black belt who seems to have a decent smothering top game. Her takedowns are the bright spot in her incomplete game and we've seen her shoot several types of TDs, including double legs, trips. More promising is that she can chain wrestle. Although Bernardo is unathletic, I think she may have a strength advantage over Moras here when it comes to just sloth-pace BJJ.

It'll just take one takedown a round for Talita to get top position and control Moras through the round. The stand-up between the two should be comical and, although Moras striking looked pretty decent against Pudilova (Bernardo was able to land someting on Aldana late too, but she's still far worse), I doubt that a ref would be looking to stand them up quickly for more of that sort of ugliness.

Bernardo has shown some bright spots though. The first round against Reneau, where she came in on days notice, displaiyed some good grappling and wrestling. She fell off a cliff instantly but it was encouraging seeing how tough she was throughout that whole fight. Despite looking as gassed as any wmma fighter I've ever seen in the 3rd round, she still fought off a triangle from Reneau, who is good at that technique. This leads me to believe she won't be easily subbed in Moras's guard, unless it's Rd1 and she gets caught in something unexpected or in transition. Bernardo's toughness and willingness to fight was also in display against Aldana where, despite getting destroyed on the feet, she was able to get the fight to the ground and keep it there for a bit. Aldana was able to get to her feet eventually, but Moras has shown zero get-ups in her career.

So if we assume that Bernardo continues to look like shit without any improvements, and her cardio is really that terrible (and not excused by very short notice or diminished by getting punched repeatedly in the face), then she deserves to be an underdog at current odds. However, if we assume that she is a stronger and more technical grappler than Moras, and that the favorable matchup will be much more in her comfort zone, then we might be looking at a different Bernardo that shows and expands on the few positive moments she's had so far. In the most generous light, and if we know this fight takes place on the ground with Bernardo on top, then its really her fight to lose.

Well said.

Yeah, when you look at Moras' two wins they come from : an opponent gassing and an opponent just having a Mental error. (Oh and she beat Peggy Morgan on tuf)

Bernardo in her loses at least had moments when she was able to enforce her will, on better opposition than Moras.

The last time Moras fought a decent bjj/top game player she got subbed by Pena on TUF.

That said, I like getting her at +180 I wouldn't be excited by her as a fave.