UFC on ESPN+ 24 Blaydes vs Dos Santos
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I think Stosic is worth the play in this spot. Yeah he looked bad by gassing in his last two losses against bum Devin Clark and Green Kennedy. But from what it looks like he’s been training at Team Elevation for the last two months with Blaydes and crew. His back is against the wall here if he loses this that would be 3 in a row. I think he’s gotten his losses out the way and understands what he needs to improve on.
Jamal Hill is very green and still needs to take his losses. He doesn’t seem to have anything other than his length and size.
Like I mentioned on the podcast, I think Stosic chops at his legs here like he did to Kennedy (hopefully he avoids the nut shots). It also helps that he’s been training with CroCop all his career so he knows his range against a southpaw fighter. I think wrestling with Blaydes at elevation will help him get Jamal to the ground to mix it up.
I’ve also got some side plays on him winning by decision +500 if Stosic decides to go the safe route and stay on top position and secure the needed W and also prove to himself that his cardio has improved.
Jamal Hill is very green and still needs to take his losses. He doesn’t seem to have anything other than his length and size.
Like I mentioned on the podcast, I think Stosic chops at his legs here like he did to Kennedy (hopefully he avoids the nut shots). It also helps that he’s been training with CroCop all his career so he knows his range against a southpaw fighter. I think wrestling with Blaydes at elevation will help him get Jamal to the ground to mix it up.
I’ve also got some side plays on him winning by decision +500 if Stosic decides to go the safe route and stay on top position and secure the needed W and also prove to himself that his cardio has improved.
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Reading my mind and putting it into words eloquently. Confidence increase
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Although I don’t fully trust most LHW’s outside of the Top 10.
205 is gonna 205 though, they’re just not as skilled as guys between 145-170.
My philosophy is that anything 185 and up can lose at any given moment just because they’re less athletic, not as deep in talent pool, and one punch can really change a fight cuz they’re bigger boys.
I also lump MOST WMMA, HWs, most Asian fighters in an ante-down 2nd tier betting category because of their inconsistencies.
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Interesting stuff. Why the asians? I´m asking because I also very often do that, asians in general in ufc for me is very often a let down. I remember last time I even bet on an asian looking guy in Salmon, and got a fantastic price 1.90 on him as opposed to line movement he screwed it up. Thats just one time and means nothing, but its something I´ve also tried to beware about the past couple of years. What is your reason? Is it because you think the talent is just not there yet or other reasons? I´m interested in seeing how China develops now with a new champion, if we´ll see a rise of asians in the next 5-10 years.
Of course there are exceptions. Do you consider asians on par in other organizations outside of ufc? Bellator, ONE fc, rizin etc or still the same? And yeah I agree with the HW, and the wmma, although wmma imo is one of the most profitable places to bet, especially on the dogs, so much value versus all those hype trains in Lipski, Lee, Barber, Viana etc.
Also a note for anyone liking each others posts and agreeing with each others breakdowns.- I totally get it, it feels really good when you see someone saying the same as you, but please be aware of confirmation bias, it is so dangerous. I as a rule personally try to find people who disagree with me - and when I watch a fight, we often know who we want to bet on - but its important to really try and prove yourself wrong - because if you cannot, then you very likely have a great bet. Very hard to do, but already being aware of our biases (and there are alot of biases that trap us), we have a greater chance at overcoming them.
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WMMA have been my biggest moneymakers by far.
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I think you quoted the wrong guy there. That was Rebel Lion.
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Your point about WMMA is right, dogs are often barking. I just do not enjoy torturing myself watching tape or overall just watching the low level WMMA get put on the pedestal higher on the card than legit MMA fighters just cuz fans can’t stop touching themselves at night. But they are good spots for dog action plays but I do not ever make huge unit sized bets on them on any given night.
When it comes to the Asians, I don’t know they’re just not consistent fighters. There’s maybe a lack of national grappling art like wrestling is to US/Russia or BJJ to Brazil? Maybe they aren’t great weight cutters or something I don’t know but they are unreliable bets for the most part til further notice.
of course in any regard, there’s always exceptions. Ms. chun Li herself Zhang Weili has been a money train for me as an underdog and she’s both asian and WMMA lol.
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I have a straight bet on Pudliova at -145
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I usually try to find as many opposing view points to my own as I can after I feel comfortable about where I capped a fight, the thanks is yours, I appreciate the content.
Johns-Gravely could be a similar situation. I saw an interview where Johns essentially was saying he doesnt decline fights, he fights killers and he thinks he deserves a bounce-back fight. Gravely could have been specifically brought in for Johns for an easier fight. I think someone in power in the UFC thinks Johns is going to win this fight a lot of the time. Johns also said he was at 155lbs and he wanted to be on the Copenhagen card.
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I think Stosics back being against the wall facing 2 losses is one of the biggest factors. I hate to bet against guys coming off 2 losses who are not shot, Stosic isnt shot and he should have beat Kennedy. Stosic will be coming in with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. Training at Team Elevation now, Hill still being green and debuting are also factors that make this fight more unpredictable. Hill doesnt necessarily have to take losses though I get what you mean, he could just be put in bad spots(Like against Townsend), prevail and still increase his level as if he experienced a loss. I wouldnt expect Stosic to get multiple takedowns and hold top position due to his cardio, he may not be able to do enough to keep it there and Hill may be able to get up. If he commits to that type of gameplan then his cardio will have to be on point, when the 3rd comes around, if he gets stuck on his feet the KO would become much more likely for Hill.
Asians seem to not get respect from judges. They face a generally lower level of competition before they get to the UFC so it could be more of a shock when they experience the new average.
I appreciate civil disagreement . l provided a lot for others to disagree on to try and start a real debate. The "try to prove yourself wrong" is also an excellent point, I never trust myself and I know I often make mistakes so I often try to prove to myself I'm wrong. The Chiesa fight is a great example, its easy to think Chiesa wont submit RDA, RDA has faced a high level of competition, greater wrestlers and never been submitted so you stop there. If you try to prove yourself wrong, you see Chiesa has had a lot of success with his wrestling and hes submitted guys you wouldnt have expected him to. You see RDA getting taken down by some of the same takedowns Chiesa uses. You also see RDA not allowing his back to be taken. Now though Chiesa isnt as good a wrestler as those RDA faced, you see he could get takedowns but likely wont get to his back. You try to find footage of RDA defending the RNC if you can to see what would happen if Chiesa can take his back. You could bet RDA and conclude that Chiesa very most likely path to win is by submission if you look on the surface. If it has really good odds, you might think to play that for some coverage or FDGTD if you think RDA can finish him enough of the time but then Chiesa wins by decision lol.
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I’ve made my picks on RDA/Perez being my two favs that I see winning and my 2 man parlay as well as finishing their respective opponents,
I think as far as dogs go, I think Colares can really make this a close fight. Montel has a ton of potential cuz of his freakish size but he’s still a young buck in the sport.
Colares is a grinder and willing to get dirty in the clinch and he uses good head pressure to get his positioning.
Odds are too wide and I see him having a shot here. O2.5, his ML, +3.5 lines are what I’m looking at currently. Maybe I’ll be on lookout for live betting too.
I think as far as dogs go, I think Colares can really make this a close fight. Montel has a ton of potential cuz of his freakish size but he’s still a young buck in the sport.
Colares is a grinder and willing to get dirty in the clinch and he uses good head pressure to get his positioning.
Odds are too wide and I see him having a shot here. O2.5, his ML, +3.5 lines are what I’m looking at currently. Maybe I’ll be on lookout for live betting too.
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I see a possible dec win for Mcmann,submission is also possible dec is more likely.
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You're very smart, I'm Asian I approve this message...
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Was surprised to see Colares ITD at +1000 range, put 0.25u on that. I think Montel is in a world of trouble if his back gets taken. However that's the only path of victory I see for him, it should be a wash on the feet and I don't see Montel getting wrestle fucked or controlled.
Oh really what a surprise when decision is x 2.8
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KZ has been an exception to the rule i think he’s a top fighter except that one time I went super heavy on him against Yair and he decided to be bestfriends and hug and high five eachother and the asian factor showed itself again
I don’t know about wash on the feet lol. Montel has much better striking and he’s got the jones esque limbs. He has a good jab too and elbows in close. There’s no telling how much better this guy has gotten since we last saw him. But I just think Colares will fight for your money here and tries to make it dirty
