UFC on ESPN+ 24 Blaydes vs Dos Santos

[xhaydenx]

Perez, Pudilova, Hill and Allen all to win on a 3k multi-bet for me.

Perez is better everywhere.

Allen is better than Lentz everywhere also, I think.

Pudilova is coming off 3 straight losses, but Kish is coming of knee surgery, 2 losses of her own, and hasn't fought since Jan of 2018. Kish lost her last fight to Kim, who Pudilova UDd in Kim's fight before that. Kish is getting older and just really doesn't have it. Pudilova is 25 and should be able to just put on too much pressure for Kish and win an easy enough UD.

I like Cifers, but she doesn't have the striking to handle Hill. I can't see her getting Hill down either. Cifers just isn't explosive enough. She has power, but do does Andrade, and Andrade couldn't even knock down Hill if I remember rightly. I think Hill pieces Cifers up for three rounds on the feet, and gets up easy enough if she does get taken down as her grappling has definitely improved over the years.

ALSO: I've seen a few sites going with Sarah to beat Lansberg on this, and a few posters on here too, but I'm thinking that's a bit crazy. I only want to do 4 legs, but Lansberg is really tempting as she's the underdog and paying well. I'm not sure about Sarah. She's 39 and is coming off pregnancy. Sara's last fight was in feb 2018 where she lost to Reneau, and she lost to Veira before that. Meanwhile, Lansberg fought twice in 2019, easily beating good grapplers in the older Evinger and the younger Chiasson. I can definitely see her making this ugly for Sarah, and Sarah gasses and wilts when things don't go her way early.

As for Chiesa vs RDA, if I had to pick, I'd pick RDA. I wouldn't bet on this one though. I see everyone saying RDA is better everywhere, and that's probably true, but that doesn't mean everything. Styles make fights, and I could see Chiesa's causing trouble RDA. It's only a 3 rounder, and Chiesa is going to come in looking to grapple and win rounds like that. He's a big, strong guy, and I can see him controlling RDA for 2 rounds and winning a decision. RDA's condition is another thing. He's been through some hard, hard fights lately. I think they would've taken their toll. Meanwhile, Chiesa has won his last two easily. If there were light weight and a year or two ago, I'd be RDA for sure, but now there's too many things that could go wrong. Then again, RDA might just come out and butcher Chiesa on the feet lol.

Blades should beat JDS, but it's HW so fuck that. I'd only bet on there being a finish in that one. JDS has good TDD and sharp hands, and could get the upset.

 

[xhaydenx]

I think hill dosen’t have the reach, better footwork or cardio to dominate Hannah who can knock her down, control the octagon and control her on the ground. Hannah winning 2 rounds is about 50/50 in my mind so im betting the shockwave

Hill definitely has the footwork. That's one of the things she's best at.

And Andrade couldn't knock Hill down if I remember rightly, so I doubt Cifers will.

 

[Vir_Ars]

Hill definitely has the footwork. That's one of the things she's best at.

And Andrade couldn't knock Hill down if I remember rightly, so I doubt Cifers will.

I'm on Hannah because I think that she is very disciplined and she will do whatever their coaches said and the plan to beat hill is obvious.
Hannah got the tools to win, my only concern is mental, Hannah is too shy, she need more confidence, I hope that being the local puts she on fire.
Hill after so many fights still closing the eyes when exchange punches, that is just terrible and crazy.

 

[xhaydenx]

Continuing my tape and... I don’t think I like cifers +150 anymore

and I’m officially buying out of Kish. Might actually change sides. Might even play pudilova tko

Good move on Cifers. She's going to lose I think.

As for your Pudilova idea? Lol. No, just no. You'll be throwing away money on Pudi for a TKO. She hasn't TKO'd anyone since she TKOd some nobodies back in 2015. Meanwhile Kish has never been TKOd, isn't chinny, and has a striking background, so she's good enough to not just eat punches.

Just do Pudi to win, and unless it's a very consistent finisher, don't fucking bet on TKOs in WMMA if you know what's good for you. Decisions, clear winners, or 2nd round starts only, lad. I went from $500 to 21k in 4 months and 2/3rds of that was WMMA.

 

[xhaydenx]

I'm on Hannah because I think that she is very disciplined and she will do whatever their coaches said and the plan to beat hill is obvious.
Hannah got the tools to win, my only concern is mental, Hannah is too shy, she need more confidence, I hope that being the local puts she on fire.
Hill after so many fights still closing the eyes when exchange punches, that is just terrible and crazy.

Fair enough.

I like Cifers a lot, but I just don't think she is good enough yet.

I don't think she lacks in the mental department at all, and her confidence is fine. How shy is on the mic doesn't reflect how shy she is in the fight. She's a different person once the fight starts.

Her only losses are to Barber, Clark, and Robertson, which are nothing to be ashamed of, for sure.

One thing that turns me off Cifers is that her striking is pretty loopy and she's short. Hill is rangey and throws clean straights which are way better.

But the real reason is that I feel like we saw a preview of how this fight will likely play out in Hill's last fight against Ariane. Ariane is built like Cifers, actually has more power than Cifers, throws hooks like Cifers, and doesn't really have the striking level just like Cifers. In that fight, Hill pieced her up with complete ease. Different people, I know, but the same sort of matchup.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I just watched Mcmann tapping to a head and arm choke from half guard against Ketlen Viera

If I was ever in a bank and the place got robbed, I'd want to be next to Sarah MacMann, cause she'll find the nearest way out.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Not sure why you’re such an emotional tampon.

Projection is a cruel mental disease!

Two brief lines mocking you and all the other postfight Nostradamuses is an "emotional tampon" (how the hell is an inanimate object emotional?), but your embarrassing, weepy reply to me isn't?

But ok, yeah its easy in hindsight with anything. Not sure what your point is, as I did have bets on it.
I guess its true what people say about you. I’m not being dragged into that, so this will be my first and last reply to you
. If you were smart you’d listen to many sides, I guess you’re one of those who won’t listen to anyone. I’ve learned that listening to many perspectives no matter who may just make you learn something, whether directly or indrectly. I’ve seen terrible bettors with weird bets, get lucky, but learning from them not by copying them but by not doing silly bets knowing it’d catch up.
Theres two examples on betmma just for that, one was the “expert group” who went from+300 units to minus.
Also why do you call yourself a casual idiot? I never called anyone casual nor idiot in my post here. so you’re also making assumptions about me now, you seem very emotional. I guess you feel upset because you think I tried to say do this and I’m better. If so that was not my point and I hope you see that now. I’m genuinely sorry you got upset by that.

Your posts come in two forms;

1. Extreme thirst and sycophantic praise, telling a gambler how great he is and asking what their secrets/strategy are.
2. Long, rambling posts calling everyone who called a fight wrong a lazy idiot (you claimed that no one who played Barber against Roxy actually taped the fight, and were just operating off emotion or the odds they saw), as well as a bunch of insufferably arrogant "gambling lessons".

Kyle Stephens would come up with "gambling lessons" after a fight too, and a lot of people on this forum gave him shit for it. But in Kyle's defense, he wasn't nearly so arrogant, never claimed that anyone getting a fight wrong was a lazy idiot, AND would post prefight analysis and make some actual plays.

Whatever the case, not going to respond to you any further than this. Feel free to post more emotional replies after this if you like, good day to you.

"I say good day, sir! GOOD DAY!"

 

[Red_2]

If only you put the same effort into researching and betting as you do insults. Imagine what you could do.

 

[Xuh]

I feel that Angela Hill has significant advantages in:
- Size
- Reach
- Speed
- Footwork
- Experience
- Striking Technique (execution and variety)
- Output

In what is likely to be mostly a striking bout.
Cifers has power maybe? With that right hand she spams. Is she really gonna knock Hill out though or even rock her that often. (No)

I've seen some smart ppl say they think Hill will win for reasons like the above but her line is too juiced. I don't get that because how often do you see Cifers winning this? If she has the performance of her career, Hill underperforms, and there's some debatable judging, maybe 1 in 5 times? (and I feel that's a bit generous TBH). Her ML hovering in the 1.55-1.60 range is a very good price IMO. I don't understand only playing her DEC line when it's only about 0.20 higher, either (sure she'll probably DEC but she finished her last opponent and she's KO'd a member of the US boxing team before, is it really ever worth it for just 0.20? She also said she wants to go for more finishes now, but then again every fighter says that so whatever).

Hill is quite reliable in that you know what she's gonna do, unlike the similarly priced other women favs on the card; Ultimate Flake Sara McMann, or Pudilova who is a work in progress and something of a wildwoman (and has the hardest fight stylistically of the three).

 

[XociDe]

On RDA, and was confident when I placed the bet, but I've been increasingly more nervous that Chiesa will be able to bully him against the fence and do enough to win rounds.

I didn't actually realise Chiesa was THAT much bigger until the face off.

We all know RDA is far, far more skilled, but I'm just getting a bad feeling.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

On RDA, and was confident when I placed the bet, but I've been increasingly more nervous that Chiesa will be able to bully him against the fence and do enough to win rounds.

I didn't actually realise Chiesa was THAT much bigger until the face off.

We all know RDA is far, far more skilled, but I'm just getting a bad feeling.

With you on that. Reduced my RDA bet due to the size. But still believe RDA will be able to inflict a lot of damage if he fights smart.

 

[grndzro]

On RDA, and was confident when I placed the bet, but I've been increasingly more nervous that Chiesa will be able to bully him against the fence and do enough to win rounds.

I didn't actually realise Chiesa was THAT much bigger until the face off.

We all know RDA is far, far more skilled, but I'm just getting a bad feeling.

WHAT!?
5 ft 8 vs 6 ft 1, and a 6 inch reach advantage.

With you on that. Reduced my RDA bet due to the size. But still believe RDA will be able to inflict a lot of damage if he fights smart.

Chiesa is going to know that. He isn't going to be hanging out in medium range.

 

[MrShady]

WHAT!?
5 ft 8 vs 6 ft 1, and a 6 inch reach advantage.

Chiesa uses his size against the cage and fence. 6 inch reach wont mean much in terms of striking or distance management. He will have a good start and RDA has to weather the early pressure and Chiesa will slowly be discouraged and start to break. RDA is mentally tougher imo.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

WHAT!?
5 ft 8 vs 6 ft 1, and a 6 inch reach advantage.


Chiesa is going to know that. He isn't going to be hanging out in medium range.

In the clinch I think RDA can do alot of damage aswell, at least if Chiesa fights like he did vs Diego.

 

[grndzro]

Chiesa uses his size against the cage and fence. 6 inch reach wont mean much in terms of striking or distance management. He will have a good start and RDA has to weather the early pressure and Chiesa will slowly be discouraged and start to break. RDA is mentally tougher imo.

It isn't in the clinch where that will come in use. It will be to stay at range, and to gauge when to clinch. Also will be useful catching RDA as he circles out.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

On RDA, and was confident when I placed the bet, but I've been increasingly more nervous that Chiesa will be able to bully him against the fence and do enough to win rounds.

I didn't actually realise Chiesa was THAT much bigger until the face off.

We all know RDA is far, far more skilled, but I'm just getting a bad feeling.

RDA will win. But the more I think about it, the more I see it not being a total blowout and Chiesa winning some positions, making it a fight, making bettors sweat it a bit. The reason is not only because of the size difference. (Chiesa is big for a WW even, and he is very strong, + he likes to use trips and throws, and him being taller than RDA will probably make these techniques more effective.) RDA was never a good in-and-out fighter. Which I think would've serve him the best in this particular fight. He is either going forward until he clinches up with you, or he is going back until his back hits the fence and again - clinches up with you. He is 100% gonna end up in a lot of clinches and wrestling with Chiesa. And he'll probably outwrestle him and outgrapple him. But this will give Chiesa chances to do something.

 

[TrueAscension]

This is totally off topic so I apologize but 5d just dicked me out of 1500 bucks on my CC and refuses to credit it. Does anyone else have a book they'd recommend that isn't just bitcoin?

 

[Sadistics]

This is totally off topic so I apologize but 5d just dicked me out of 1500 bucks on my CC and refuses to credit it. Does anyone else have a book they'd recommend that isn't just bitcoin?

You need Bookmaker in your life.

 

[xyzxyz94]

First time betting today so going really small. Put $5 on Lendwehr because it was near even and he won a lot in Russia so I assume he can wrestle and keep it standing against Burns who's not so good on the feet. Trying to decide if I should go with Johns by decision at -135 or Johns by sub at +490.

 

[Richard Cruz]

This is totally off topic so I apologize but 5d just dicked me out of 1500 bucks on my CC and refuses to credit it. Does anyone else have a book they'd recommend that isn't just bitcoin?

Did you call your credit card company? It happen to me with 5d last year and my credit card company took out the charges. It was a company in China.