UFC on ESPN+ 24 Blaydes vs Dos Santos

[Chris Wang]

I'm very heavy on o1.5 rounds in particular for main event, and spread out late round props/decision lines for both fighters. Basically I'm going to get Rekt if the fight ends in the first round. Confident that the fight doesn't end instantly though.

Pretty safe, do you see it going to distance?

 

[2020Tracked]

Anyone like the Bevon Lewis/Townsend fight over 1.5 rounds at 1.57

 

[MidgardSerpent]

I'm very heavy on o1.5 rounds in particular for main event, and spread out late round props/decision lines for both fighters. Basically I'm going to get Rekt if the fight ends in the first round. Confident that the fight doesn't end instantly though.

I'm with you, I got around $500 spread across over 1.5 and starts round 3. Feel that's the best play of the card. The faves are too juiced and who knows who will edge it out in the girl fights. Will probably keep my bets super limited for this event, I'm trying to be sensible and not force anything that's not there on a pretty dogshit card.

 

[Gugabe]

I'm very heavy on o1.5 rounds in particular for main event, and spread out late round props/decision lines for both fighters. Basically I'm going to get Rekt if the fight ends in the first round. Confident that the fight doesn't end instantly though.

Yeah. Fuck all worth doing this card. I've just got Landwehr and some JDS/Blaydes over permutations.

 

[Sono07]

Jackson Ko/tko at +120 while his decision is +160 on dimes.
Seems like a nice work around for that nutty ML.

 

[Vir_Ars]

Jackson Ko/tko at +120 while his decision is +160 on dimes.
Seems like a nice work around for that nutty ML.

I like Jackson ITD, colares is there to be hit and finished.

Yeah. Fuck all worth doing this card. I've just got Landwehr and some JDS/Blaydes over permutations.

I like a lot landwehr, I think that he have very good TDD and Burns don't have very good wrestling, only put guard as way to the ground. Where you see the weak point of landwehr?

 

[TheFightGuy]

UFC North Carolina Breakdown: Curtis Blaydes vs. Junior Dos Santos

Didn't have a lot of time this week to work on my hobby, but I looked at the 3 top fights.

 

[benebox]

Cuz he thinks its gonna end in a dec lol why else

I guess because I thought his analysis could just as easily be a reason to bet on a submission win (especially as she has 5/11 sub wins) which was paying +950 at the time.

 

[Sono07]

I like Jackson ITD, colares is there to be hit and finished

Yeah I was tempted I just like the + money on both ko and decision. Jackson only has one pro sub. Felipe showed toughness at least before he pulled off his miracle knee bar. That fight probably should have been stopped but I like the idea of a backstop if this goes to the cards.

 

[Sono07]

I like RDA's interview with Matt Serra.
He meantions heavy grappling training, pushing the pace and being very aware of Chiesa's back take skills.
On a side note congrats to Dos Anjos apparently he just got naturalized as a US citizen.

 

[TrueAscension]

Bro, better donate that money to a dog shelter.

Chiesa stands zero chance against RDA. Pettis out grappled Chiesa

a skeleton of Chiesa don’t get it twisted

 

[benebox]

It's crazy how much bigger chiesa is than RDA. Makes me a little scared despite knowing he isn't half the fighter RDA is.

You could argue all of RDA's losses at WW have been for that exact same reason. Although all his losses were to much better opposition than Chiesa.

 

[Sono07]

Guys am I missing something on the Burns vs Landwehr fight? I really like Nate's line even now. Looks like his striking is better and I like his pressure and angles.
Still not done on Burns but I thought his contender series win was a bad look.
See like the value is on Landwehr ML with a Burns sub hedge? Nate seems like the fight for your money type I don't think he'll give up any positions easily.

 

[grndzro]

You could argue all of RDA's losses at WW have been for that exact same reason. Although all his losses were to much better opposition than Chiesa.

RDA's frame is better suited for WW compared to Chiesa. Chiesa is a big WW that was cutting to LW. Might as well have been a cancer patient trying to fight at LW. His cut was brutal.

RDA is kind of a small WW.

Chiesa's at +161 at bookmaker. Odds dropping like a rock everywhere.

 

[Sono07]

For anyone interested in this kinda stuff seems like Hannah and Nate will be locals here. Not sure if that means anything but Cifers out of North Carolina and Landwehr just around the corner from Tennessee.
Shame I'm missing this one live might have to catch the next close one.

 

[mposhtkouhi]

I guess because I thought his analysis could just as easily be a reason to bet on a submission win (especially as she has 5/11 sub wins) which was paying +950 at the time.

Well if thats the reason why not bet Mcmann TKO Lansberg has 3 tko losses no sub losses in 4 fights? and that line is +1600 which I think is more likely then a sub win. Then again I got lansberg by dec

 

[rille31]

I just watched Mcmann tapping to a head and arm choke from half guard against Ketlen Viera

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Chiesa in any weight division, still fights like he has 2 left feet. He graduated from Homer Simpson university of striking where he gets his ass kicked and waits for his opponents to tire so he can take their backs and get the RNC. But this time he’ll just be better hydrated. He’s still the same fighter from TUF til today.

Both guys are pressure fighters and once RDA gets his pressure game going, Chiesa will not know how to fight on his back foot and will get finished with a 10 piece family combo and if he doesn’t go down from strikes then he will not get a soda to wash that biscuit down and get choked.

RDA has lost to plenty of wrestlers in his career but Chiesa isn’t really that good of a wrestler. He’s got body lock trips and a size advantage against most.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Chiesa in any weight division, still fights like he has 2 left feet. He graduated from Homer Simpson university of striking where he gets his ass kicked and waits for his opponents to tire so he can take their backs and get the RNC. But this time he’ll just be better hydrated. He’s still the same fighter from TUF til today.

Both guys are pressure fighters and once RDA gets his pressure game going, Chiesa will not know how to fight on his back foot and will get finished with a 10 piece family combo and if he doesn’t go down from strikes then he will not get a soda to wash that biscuit down and get choked.

RDA has lost to plenty of wrestlers in his career but Chiesa isn’t really that good of a wrestler. He’s got body lock trips and a size advantage against most.

Forgot how clean RDA's finish over Lee looked. Guess Lee was pretty gassed but great movement and angles Rafael.

Question is since its a three rounder, can RDA get to do this or KO or will it be a close 2 round loss.

Agreed, most likely way besides a suprising RNC would be to grind it out to a close dec, if he can use bodylocks and control, and RDA gets pushed around up against the cage, but in the clinch he should do alot of damage, but with a perfect gameplan for Chiesa the path to victory is there. The size is quite large, definitely worrysome, but RDA does not take anyone lightly, afterall he asked for the fight. Chiesa also hasn´t really beaten anyone but Daruish, had two bad losses, and then beat two washed up fighters, who RDA also would smash. He can win this fight, but its very narrow as opposed to RDA, still a 5 rounder would probably favor RDA, but so far he´s only lost to absolute elite competition, so until that changes or anything major happens, hard to see why he shouldn´t be around a -400 or so favorite. We´ll see though, if Chiesa can invent his gameplan. I´m gonna be ready to livebet it if he does come in smart.

 

[Sono07]

Line movement going different ways on Dimes and Bovada. For at least two of the fights I like the most and I don't know how to feel about that.