Shhhh...I'm still kicking myself. I was soooo close to putting $ on her.
Look at it as confidence increase for next time, also thought a ton about making a once a year “golden” bet with 5-6U on her, usually with big dogs you cannot do that even if you feel the line is much closer due to a bad streak could kill you, same goes for props with crazy value, its too risky. Modaferi dec at 11.0 had fantastic value, I remember picking that at 7.00 vs Shev. But here there was chance of finish, and would rather be safe when there already was a lot of value.
Its just one of those fights where odds influence people alot. Pretty much everywhere twitter, youtube and a lot of those people who do “breakdowns and bettng advice” laughed and did clearly not even put proper research into it, too emotional and shows alot. Always fun when people always pick huge favs then laughs at people pocking a dog duento value not getting it, non serious bettors I mean.
In hindsight thought Rox should probably had been the fan. She did however end up in some very bad positions at times due to her being way too eager, and going for damage rather than control. She said this herself in her blog, she wanted to do so much this fight...too much. She wrote this before the fight. She had also trained her standup and it showed. Faster and on point...and knocking barber down, who perhaps came in missing weight even, (there was a video showcasing the scale and something seemed odd with it but Im not sure) she really made her look silly.
She could had lost with Barber on top due to being too follish like we saw though, so dont kick yourself too hard. It was hard to say what odds/percentage my mind kept going from 40-50-60%, Around2.5-3.0 at worst. I think Jordan pointed this out aswell.
its been showed we humans have a hard time with smaller percentages but easier saying a big or fairly big dog should be closer to even, that makes sense and also why dogs for most bettors are the most profitable and slight favs the biggest sinks.
I have a hard time seeing a line beating this. Line of the year like Jordan called could very well be, its gonna be hard to beat.
5-6U really shouldnt be too hard to get back though if its 1% so I think we all kickijg ourselves for not throwing more on it. I regret not postijg it on twitter and youtube and my betmma as fight went both with the good and bad with rox losing position exactly as i thought.
Theres so many people who loves to brag and repeat what they said about how smart they are...but when they lose...nothing..Its either both or nothing imo. But most people are so casuals they dont see through those touts.
Random. otel saw one random guy, no idea who he was but he put 3k on roxy dec he said..brave man, but I think ML and maybe stab at dec was better, as yes nearly always dec for roxy..but If it ended ITD thats alot of units you lose out on. I usually always split to avoid that feeling soat worst younget your money back, even if dec is the way to go on such a big dog.
But my advice would be, look at why you did not put money on her, and next time such a situstion arises, you can pull the trigger.
Its good to have a check list to go through. Keeps you disciplined and takes the emotions out of it. Fear and greed are the worst from my experience.
