And Russia is much more powerful now that it once was.
You guys can keep doing this "Hur durr Russia is a can paper tiger WOLVERINES go fuck yourself warship!" thing all you want, it doesn't change that Russia is ostensively the second more powerful nation in the world and it is taking billions of dollars of weapons, arms and worldwide coordination just to handle him turning the dial as softly as he could. That's influence, that's power.
I don't like it and I think Ukraine being a sovereign nation is the only just answer to this equation, but I'm not buying the Reddit Cringelord "PUTTIN IS A CANNNN" takes. Sorry. Dude is extremely powerful
People don’t realize, but Putin is extremely well prepared for this to last for years, if need be. He has been preparing for this for a decade or more, almost single-mindedly. Westerners don’t get it. He sees it almost like fulfillment of prophesy. It isn’t a war of simple pragmatism. He is a true believer and will incur almost any cost to win, which is what makes this so terrifying.
He has essentially turned Russia into an ark. They are sitting on a huge pile of foreign currency and gold. He has sanction-proofed Russia (almost). Russia is food and fuel secure. He has a powerful security state able to crush dissent. Their is no dissenting media. That help he has been giving to Syria, Belarus, and Kazahkstan? It was largely to cultivate indebted “allies.”
He has no qualms with killing huge numbers of civilians, and has no problem with his citizenry suffering.
This will get very, very ugly. If we want Ukraine to win, the West will need to sacrifice. I don’t know if we are prepared for that. Ultimately, we will have to sanction all Russian oil and gas exports (Putin’s only source of fresh foreign currency). This would almost certainly cripple Russia’s ability to wage a prolonged war. But it would crush the economy. Putin’s real “gamble” is assuming that the West will not endure that cost. If we did, we would likely see the end of Vlad Putin. The Russian people would suffer greatly.
As far as what we are seeing militarily; Putin is engaging in incremental war. He’s throwing his junk and schlubs initially to absorb munitions. He wants to achieve his objective with as little damage as possible. He will continue to escalate as necessary. It hurts me to think of what will come for Ukraine, the home of many of my friends. I foresee destruction of utilities and communications in the future and deliberate targeting of civilians.
Make no mistake, Putin is a historical evil on par with a Napoleon, a Hitler. In my opinion, he must be destroyed one way or the other. And I think he will be, if I had to predict. I believe we will see the end of Lukashenko in Belarus as well.