UFC fight night 138

I watched Taleb's last fight again and before he got taken down he looked slower and less technical than before. I'm not expecting for prime Taleb to show up.


PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
So I tortured myself by watching a bunch of Sarah Moras and Talita Bernardo fights. After doing so, I absolutely can't fathom how Moras is a -220 favorite.

Bernardo has significantly better wrestling and at least equal jits. Their stand-up is probably about equal or a very tiny edge for Bernardo; they both suck overall, and there are things Bernardo does better, and things Moras does better. Moras does have better cardio (although Bernardo looked better in that regard against Aldana), and generally does more with top position than Bernardo does.

So again, how is this a -220 fight? Based on what I saw, this is very much a pick'em fight. I would imagine it's a close decision either way.
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I think Bernardo is a black belt. She struggles against babes who have good TDD but Morah will welcome this fight on the ground.
 
Glad I bet when I did, as the line for the Moras-Bernardo going the distance already went from -265 to -305.

In related news, I also put down 1.5u on Bernardo winning by decision at +300. If Moras wins by decision instead, I will make a very tiny profit.
 
Danis_champ said:
I think Bernardo is a black belt. She struggles against babes who have good TDD but Morah will welcome this fight on the ground.
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I's more complicated than that. Aldana has poor takedown defense but managed to beat Bernardo handily. Marion Reneau has arguably the worst takedown defense of any fighter signed to the UFC and managed to stop Bernardo.

Obviously, both fighters have massively better striking than Moras does.
 
Bernardo and Moras both have fairly incomplete MMA skillsets, but this one feels like an absolute coinflip to me. I don’t see any reason at all for Moras to be worse than -200 vs another grappler. I think we’re pretty likely to see an uneventful 29-28 here either way, so I’m rolling the dice on that +180.
 
Jonathan Martinez had a fight booked at 125 which was cancelled when ufc called. he was preparing to make 125. he gonna be small. interesting to see what bone head iq souk uses to lose this
 
ok. just watched martinez cruz. martinez looks easy to take down. souks gonna be winning the stand up but take him down anyway. prob nearly get subbed but ignore the warning signs and jump st8 back into guard and get put in a triangle we all see being set up except him and get subbed.
 
general props out. I hit not Nasrat ITD at +185...

This line is definitely inflated by Nasrat having a bunch of KO's against 0-0 fighters, and the fact Gouti is +600, Nasrat should win a comfortable decision.
 
Danis_champ said:
Because he is..
Smith getting all that hype because he beat two absolutely washed up chinny fighters. Watch his career before Evans fight

He started well vs Thiago but got hit in the body and folded
Lombard was winning that fight before he gassed. Smith enjoyed big reach advantage in that fight but could not do anything with it
Sanchez the ultimate bum was beating him too until he gassed like he always does
Elvis - who the fook is that guy

Smith been incredibly lucky. He is just like Derrick. Losing the fight and pulls out the win out of nowhere. Disgusting

This is the first time (maybe other than Santos) when he faces a legit guy who is in his prime. Pluss add to that Smith is chinny as fuck. And volkan has big power.

People fading Volkan because of this debut fight which he took on short notice and beat very tough guy in OSP. Win over OSP>everything that Smith has ever done. Imo this is a mismatch
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He was killing himself to get to 185, he looks so much better physically at 205. Also he isn't chinny, you are clearly just looking at the KO's on his record, but he hasn't been KO'd (Santos was a body shot) in 7 years. In the Santos fight he took a hook kick from one of the hardest kickers in MMA and didn't get rocked. I would assume his durability only increases at 205 when he isn't cutting an absurd amount of weight. Volkan needs a rd1 KO, dude has awful cardio. Watch his fight against Vahkaev before getting the call-up, it is laughably bad. Oh and he defintely lost to OSP.
 
zeckdo said:
general props out. I hit not Nasrat ITD at +185...

This line is definitely inflated by Nasrat having a bunch of KO's against 0-0 fighters, and the fact Gouti is +600, Nasrat should win a comfortable decision.
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Gouti absolutely doesn't survive the beating Diak took. I think Nasrat murks him.
 
Gugabe said:
Volkan didn't beat OSP, that decision was incredibly iffy (http://mmadecisions.com/decision/7740/Volkan-Oezdemir-vs-Ovince-Saint-Preux) and OSP looked really, really flat in it. I'm not saying Smith's particularly good, but I think this is a fight between two overperformers and haven't seen anything particularly encouraging out of Volkan. Smith, for all his failings, has heart, cardio and durability. If it's going to be two mediocre kickboxers going for it, I'll go for the one that doesn't quit over the one that quit badly in his last fight.
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You think he blatantly quit? I'm not sure. I mean, he had no answer for DC's pressure or ground game. I also think he knew he couldn't win after the first round and knew the fight was virtually over when he was taken down. Towards the end he stops trying I guess. He also couldn't seem to handle DC's extend the arms parrying defense standing.

Saying that, I didn't like his reactions to DCs punches standing. He was hurt badly by a left hook. His face looked very marked up at the end of the first.

In the OSP fight he showed good work for the first round and a half. Nice kicks as well as punches.He will bring heavy hands and good volume for the first round.I tend to think he gets Smith out of there within 2 minutes. I can see Smith surviving and getting to Volkan but Odds and betting aside, Oezdomir KO1 is the most likely scenario eh?
 
Stunna77 said:
Gouti absolutely doesn't survive the beating Diak took. I think Nasrat murks him.
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I have 1u on Gouti... this line is way too wide imo. If only he had some semblance of fight IQ I would be loving +600. We know he's at least tough enough to fight a war with Teymur, and I don't think he is a great guy to volume punch against, as Nasrat showed to be his style in his last fight. Diakese is all one-shot flash and has no idea how to handle volume, but I think it's better to counter and snipe like Laprise did to Gouti (I consider the Packalen loss somewhat flukey). I think Gouti will better be able to dissuade Nasrat from entering the pocket at will. Sage and Mercier were hating the striking situation against him.
 
weedreference said:
I have 1u on Gouti... this line is way too wide imo. If only he had some semblance of fight IQ I would be loving +600. We know he's at least tough enough to fight a war with Teymur, and I don't think he is a great guy to volume punch against, as Nasrat showed to be his style in his last fight. Diakese is all one-shot flash and has no idea how to handle volume, but I think it's better to counter and snipe like Laprise did to Gouti (I consider the Packalen loss somewhat flukey). I think Gouti will better be able to dissuade Nasrat from entering the pocket at will. Sage and Mercier were hating the striking situation against him.
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Gouti has never thrown a counter strike in his life. Back him up and he has nothing. Nas brings the pressure, I don't see Gouti having any success
 
Ive just cleared a $10k credit card. I am seriousy thinking of using it all on MJ ML. Any ideas what the odds will be? 1.20?
 
Mcgregorian said:
Ive just cleared a $10k credit card. I am seriousy thinking of using it all on MJ ML. Any ideas what the odds will be? 1.20?
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William H will get you 1.20, rest bookies are at 1.18 and will probably decrease even more over time.
 
Sadistics said:
Gouti has never thrown a counter strike in his life. Back him up and he has nothing. Nas brings the pressure, I don't see Gouti having any success
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I don't remember Gouti being backed up except due to gassing (granted, I'm not going to rewatch all of the tape). When did this happen?
 
Man... the more I think about it the more I think I should not bet on Smith vs Oezdemir. It's a 50/50 pick'em fight. Volkan being obviously the higher ranked fella here and has some impressive feats but there are some points to consider:
  • Volkan has no ground game, proven
  • Volkan gas tank is very doubtable
  • Smith has improved a lot
They share their strengths in the same areas. ughh... Michael Johnson is 100% safe bet but nothing else really catches my attention here.

Smith vz Oezdemir ITD is 1.11 odds - not worthy of betting at all.

Patrick Cummins as a five-to-one underdog looks like a potential value bet?
and Gian Villante shouldn't be a three-to-one favorite over anybody being 1-3 in his last four.

Any info on Haqparast ground game skills?
 
A 50/50 pic em fight and one guy is +165?

<{katwhu}>
 
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Nasrat is a lock, dont waste money on Gouti. Better bet Lobov ( he might win a split if he survives r1, MJ is short notice and there is a small chance that he loses ) or a dog shelter.
 
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