Swanson has been taken down by his last 3 opponents, he did not stay on his feet vs Kawajiri, a lot of that fight was contested on the ground and Swanson was taken down 3 times. And when Artem Lobov can hit knee taps on you, I mean theres really no excuse for that, other than you don't have great TDD.
Ortega said he doesn't like to pursue TD's a lot because it's a waste of energy. Ortega has only taken down one of his UFC opponents and it was his debut fight. But like I said before, he doesn't neeed a TD to get him to the ground.
Ortega is the younger, undefeated, improving fighter, usually thats the side I wanna be on. I just can't trust Swanson like you can, it will be interesting to see what his approach is, will he limit some of his offence or will he be the typical freestyle Cub Swanson.
Eh I don't really agree with this. If you're fighting Demian Maia, you're going to devote all of your focus on not getting taken down. If you're fighting Artem Lobov and are winning comfortably, you probably care little about whether you get knee tapped. The level of effort trying not to get taken down is going to be commensurate with the threat of what will happen if you do get taken down. It's misleading to take situations out of context but sometimes we do this when we want to look for evidence on decisions we've already made.
When it comes to Ortega's lack of takedowns early in fights, it's definitely a tactical choice. He definitely doesn't want to waste energy because it looks like he's not quite as good at locking in submissions while his opponent is fresh. Aside from the De La Torre fight, he hasn't finished an opponent early since 2013. I think when you watch the Tavares and Diego Brandao fights, the reason is pretty clear. He's just not strong enough to lock up submissions when his opponent isn't tired because they just power out.
It looked clear to me that Ortega intentionally saves some in the tank and then goes for the finish. It was most obvious in the Brandao fight. Not one attempt to really be offensive in the 2nd round, and then right as the 3rd started he's trying all sorts of stuff, jumping guard for a guillotine, and diving for the clinch.
Likewise with his striking, it doesn't look all that threatening in the early rounds since he doesn't throw with very much power. Aside from a spinning back elbow against Brandao, nothing he throws in rds 1 and 2 seem to bother his opponent much (I haven't rewatched Moicano fight yet so not sure if he had moments in that fight).
The fact that Ortega has a very narrow window to finish fights, and that he can't seem to win a round on points, but that he's still been able to pull out victories is amazing. All credit to him for implementing something that has worked. However, how long can it work against someone who is wise to his game? If Brandao had a bit more energy or was in full defensive mode in that 3rd round, how much longer could Ortega have dove into him looking for a sub? The strategy is bound to fail eventually, just not sure if it's this fight.