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Pretty much agree. I think we'd end up betting on what the sentence will be if he takes it to trial. For instance I would say that if he doesn't plead out, and it goes to a verdict and sentencing, he gets 10+ years from the judge. So, he could be found innocent, or he could beat some of the charges and get less than 10 years, and you'd win. Something like that. But you don't think he'll be convicted of anything if it goes to trial, so maybe you should put some weight on your end, if that's what you actually believe.Let's at least hash out the preliminary details.
Paul Manafort is found guilty of(insert crime), and sentenced to...I'll say less than 10 years?
I'm only giving that as a parameter. I don't think he'll be convicted of shit, but that's a start. You say he'll die in prison, I say no. This could be argued down to pardon/no pardon. It's not a very good bet, now that I think about it, but let's hash it out, and see where we land.
I'd love to bet on a pardon somehow, but that would basically be flipping coins at this point.